Model Madness
Lots of buzz about the latest run of the Global Forecast System (the 18Z GFS run)… here is the surface output valid at midnight Saturday night:
This suggests a nice rain event Saturday afternoon with rain changing to snow Saturday night. No doubt this is an outlier for now… both the GFS and the ECMWF are really having a hard time getting this resolved; don’t be shocked if that is gone on the 00Z run.
Once the main upper trough lifts out at mid-week and the entire system gets in the U.S. upper air network, then we will have a much better feel for the weekend…
December 10th, 2007 at 5:24 pm
Look I know we can have just about anything since my high today was 78.0 is this December or late September? well anyway I think that look is nuts.
December 10th, 2007 at 5:39 pm
Hello J.B.,
Ice storms are definitely not a lot of fun. I’m sure they would rather have 1-2 feet of snow instead at those temperatures. 1-2 inches of freezing rain with those temperatures spells a disaster for those in the middle part of the country. I sure hope things improve for them. The cold is nice but ice is not. I haven’t heard any reports on how much snow fell in the Rocky’s this past weekend. I did see on the news where Salt Lake City,Utah had a nice snow. Matt Marshall, if your reading this give us an update on the weather situation there in Utah. How much snow did you receive this weekend? Your report’s are always interesting.
J.B. and readers: Question of the day, I may have asked this before but just for giggles I will ask it again. I think we all know the highest elevation here in Alabama is Mt.Cheaha with an elevation just over 2,400 feet. My question: If we had an mountain range here in Alabama from say Mt.Cheaha to Norteast Alabama with elevations ranging from 7,000 to 10,000 feet, How much snow would those areas receive? Do you think we would have some ski resorts?
J.B., Bill Murray, Tim Coleman, James Spann,Ashley Brand,Jason Simpson,Brian Peters and the rest of the weather team for ABC33/40 and all of the readers who visit here on the blog please give your opinion. Remember just a hypothetical question but still fun to think about. Thanks for any replies! Everyone have a great day! I have another interesting question tomorrow so stay tuned.
Thanks
December 10th, 2007 at 5:40 pm
I was hoping I was not the only person who saw this. It would be SOOOOO nice since it has been SOOOOO long but I am not getting my hopes up at all. Would cool before Christmas or just in general. Last really big snow was Blizzard outside the sleet storm in 1994 and a few light snows I recall in 2000 and 2001. It will be gone tonight, tomorrow or whenever. We shall see.
December 10th, 2007 at 5:42 pm
Considering the gulf moisture around it would be a ton.
December 10th, 2007 at 5:45 pm
Five days before Winter Storm 93, the temp was in the 70′s. BUT… I am NOT getting my hopes up.
December 10th, 2007 at 5:49 pm
Hello James,
This definitely looks like a nice setup for rain here which we badly need. Its only 6 days out so I believe the models might be onto to something. It could change tomorrow and then be back on board by Wed. I wish we had higher elevations here in AL. then we could talk about how many feet of snow would fall.
December 10th, 2007 at 5:59 pm
Hello James,
Just wanted to let you and the readers know that I am not trying to be rude about posting my question of the day about higher elevations and snow here in AL. I just thought a lot of people would miss the question because they didn’t scroll down far enough to read it. The question is hypothetical but I’m looking for some opinions and feedback to help with my research on how it would effect are climate and neighboring states. Thanks for what you and your weather family do.
December 10th, 2007 at 6:12 pm
Chuck, I was thinking the same thing.
December 10th, 2007 at 6:16 pm
I’ll believe it when I see it. Not just the fact that it was near 80 today, but the fact that we can’t even buy a decent rain event.
But it is interesting, and inside a week for a change!
December 10th, 2007 at 6:36 pm
I have seen big changes in weather when i lived in Western Pa and the northern suburbs of DC (Gaithersburg, Md). Lots of ice storms, too. I feel for the people in Oklahoma and Missouri, etc. It’s always a good idea to have emergency supplies in the car (flashlight, water, some power bars, a blanket and a small radio with fairly new batteries). Always a good idea to have alternate cooking and heating methods at home (gas stove or fireplace for inside or a propane camp stove for outside), canned meaty soups and crackers, powdered milk, etc. One never knows….Ivan shut off our power for four days. In Feb. 2000 or so, we didn’t have power in eastern bham for four days. Guess it’s the old Girl Scout training in me, to prepare….
December 10th, 2007 at 6:38 pm
This isn’t the first run that has painted this. Take a look at the GFS Ensemble. They been suggesting this scenario for a while (days). If I am not mistake this is the system that James Spann mentioned on the 4th or 5th of this month in his morning video discussion.
December 10th, 2007 at 6:44 pm
One time i came out of work in Bethesda, Md. and went to open the car door – the car slid 2 ft forward. Another time i left work and arrived in my neighborhood to find about 2 inches of ice on the stairs leading to my townhome. Couldn’t get in, so i turned around and slept in the lab. There weren’t any hotel/motel rooms available. Yes, i know this sounds like an old timer story.
December 10th, 2007 at 7:00 pm
    I’ve seen Matt’s question several times today, and I can’t say that I can answer it with any accuracy. However, I just love the area around northeast Alabama, and the Smokies, and some mile-high mountains there might well be intriguing! Those would definitely affect local weather, just like the Rockies do. There would be snow at the top, a large chunk of the year. Hawaii has five-digit feet high mountains, and there’s snow there, very near the equator. In fact, I think I’ve read that there’s snow in the Andes, in Ecuador, right on the equator. So yeah, things would be different if there were higher mountains in our state! I’d guess we’d get cold air running off those things more often, and it’d be wetter down in the valleys. This year’s drought aside, I’m not sure it would be good. Think Himalayas, and Bangladesh. They live with floods and disaster constantly…
…..The temperature differences with regards to elevation are interesting. Often, the temp in Birmingham (600-700 feet above sea level) is ten degrees higher than in Mentone (1700-1800 feet). When we were in Gatlinburg last January, we had rain in the city (1100 feet). At Newfoundland Gap (3000 feet), it was an ice storm. And amazingly beautiful, I must say!
   
December 10th, 2007 at 7:12 pm
I never knew this site existed. thanks james for telling me about it. All this weather lingo and weather maps confuse me. Tell me if I have this staraight , the weather is forecasting rain this Saturday , December the 15, and possibly changing to ice or snow at some point? This seems awful farfetched
December 10th, 2007 at 7:27 pm
Why does there seem to be some marked discrepancies between james’ weekly forecasts and brian’s weekend forecasts. brian certainly seems to be the more conservative (and typically warmer)forecaster. some of this i’m sure is due to differences in model runs. however, the change in thinking between brian’s sunday a.m. discussion and the ones from james this morning and afternoon is somewhat typical of the contrast the two provide. what gives? by the way, james usually provides more tantalizing possibilities. it is fun to dream.
December 10th, 2007 at 7:58 pm
I remember several years ago, 5 or 6. On the very same weekend that it snowed enough that we were not able to go to church on the following Sunday. It was the 3rd weekend in December!!
December 10th, 2007 at 8:05 pm
Maybe Brian is a little more conservative because of his NWS background. Not because there is less risk of being wrong but general forecasts for an area are more averaged out numbers. James seems to like to get more specific about temps certain areas. Neither are wrong, but I think that point above has some mild validity. Maybe James has a little more kid in him when it comes to cold, snow, ice and storms as we all do, haha!!!
December 10th, 2007 at 8:08 pm
Shall I get out the dancing shoes eh????
It is fun to dream, but I just don’t see it happening…..
December 10th, 2007 at 8:30 pm
Brian is an OLD fuddy duddy!
But darn it, he is usually correct!
December 10th, 2007 at 8:34 pm
Matt Padgett put you question on the Weather forum:
http://www.talkweather.com/forums/index.php?s=676cc4464b8d40e31f8be907c5727194&showforum=1
December 10th, 2007 at 8:54 pm
If we get snow, I’ll blame it on my coworkers. They’re threatening to send it my way because I brag about the 80 degree temps.
December 10th, 2007 at 10:11 pm
I’m IN for the snow!!!!
Bring it on 
http://cookevilleweatherguy.blogspot.com
December 10th, 2007 at 10:13 pm
What was the high temperature Dec. 16, 2000–the day the tornado hit in Tuscaloosa? The next day there was snow on the ground here. I realize chances are not likely for snow, but given the differences in weather from one day to the next, I see where it’s possible. If the scenario plays out is there a possibility of severe weather prior to the event?
December 10th, 2007 at 10:13 pm
Still showing up at 120 hours just not as much precip by the time cold air arrives.
December 10th, 2007 at 10:14 pm
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_pcp_120s.gif
Here is the link
December 10th, 2007 at 10:25 pm
The 0z data is showing the possibility of rain changing to snow for folks in Alabama. Who knows…..
December 10th, 2007 at 11:06 pm
Ever notice that whenever a blog post mentions snow, there are almost always dozens of comments?
Anyway… today’s high was 79 here in northern Walker County.
Kellie, the highs on Dec 16 2000 were in the upper 70′s across most of Alabama. I remember that day quite vividly, as it was exceptionally warm and windy…
December 10th, 2007 at 11:15 pm
News 2(ABC) in Nashville has put a forecast for rain or a mix changing to snow Saturday into Sunday here in Middle Tenenssee. This is the first TV Station in this part of the country to mention this system in their seven day to my knowledge. Here is the link… http://www.nashvillewx.com