Well Defined Front To The North
An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.
ON THE MAPS: You can easily pick out the surface boundary this afternoon; north of the front Memphis is at only 59 degrees, while on the south side Tuscaloosa is 18 degrees warmer at 77. A few strong storms have formed on the boundary; the heaviest ones at 3:00 were over North Mississippi between Ripley and Booneville. A few showers have moved into North Alabama’s Franklin and Colbert counties, and we will need to mention the chance of a few showers over the Tennessee Valley tonight, mostly along and north of U.S. 278 (Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden). The showers will diminish later tonight as the air becomes more stable.
TOMORROW: The GFS and the NAM are not real bullish on rain, but with that surface front nearby, I think we have to mention at least a chance of isolated showers tomorrow afternoon and into the evening hours. Most places will be dry, but a shower somewhere over North Alabama sure can’t be ruled out. Like this evening, the best chance of showers will be over the northern third of the state. Otherwise, the day tomorrow will feature a mix of sun and clouds with a high at or just over 80 degrees.
THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: For us, Saturday will be warm and dry with a high between 80 and 83 degrees along with a partly sunny sky. But, to the northwest, a dynamic weather system will bring a significant severe weather threat to the general area from Dallas/Fort Worth, Texas to Madison, Wisconsin. The enhanced severe weather risk will be over Missouri and Iowa, where the dynamic support and instability combination will be highest. I would not be surprised if SPC issued a moderate risk of severe weather for this region, which does include Columbia, where Alabama plays Missouri Saturday afternoon. See the football forecast notes below.
We will bring in a chance of showers late Sunday afternoon and Sunday night as the front approaches North Alabama, but the dynamic support will be weakening, and severe weather shouldn’t be an issue here. In fact, rain amounts look pretty light for the I-20/59 corridor. The best chance of seeing a shower around here will come late Sunday afternoon, Sunday night, into Monday. Amounts should be generally less than 1/2 inch, and many places will see less than 1/4 inch. The high Sunday and Monday will drop back into the 70s.
Drier air filters into the state Tuesday, but the 12Z GFS shows a impressive weather system that has potential to bring strong storms, maybe even severe storms, to Alabama late Wednesday and Wednesday night of next week. See the Weather Xtreme video for the details and graphics.
FOOTBALL WEATHER: There could be a few isolated showers around tonight and tomorrow night, mostly over North Alabama, and mostly along and north of U.S. 278 (Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden). But, most high school stadiums will be dry with temperatures in the 70s at kickoff both nights, dropping into the 60s by the fourth quarter.
The big issue comes Saturday when Alabama plays Missouri in Columbia. The game kicks off at 2:30, and during the game thunderstorms are likely, and those storms could be strong to severe with potential for frequent lightning, high winds, and hail. Forecast wind profiles even suggest there will be a tornado threat. So, fans traveling to this game need to take the rain gear, be ready for delays, and be sure you have a good way of hearing severe weather warnings if they are needed. I don’t think the game will be cancelled, but a delay is a very real possibility.
Auburn travels to Oxford to play Ole Miss (11:00 a.m. kickoff); the sky will be partly to mostly sunny during the game with temperatures rising from near 80 at kickoff into the mid 80 by the final whistle. Bring the sun screen.
UAB will play at Houston Saturday (11:00 a.m. kickoff); this game will also be played with warm and dry conditions. A sunny sky; temperatures rising from the low 80s at kickoff into the upper 80s by the fourth quarter.
NATIONAL SHRIMP FESTIVAL: One of the biggest events of the year is underway at Gulf Shores… the weather will be fine through Sunday with mostly sunny warm days and fair pleasant nights. Highs will be in the 81-84 degree range. See the crowds on our Gulf Shores SKYCAM here.
TROPICS: Tropical Depression 16 is now Tropical Storm Patty… east of the Bahamas, but it is expected to dissipate tomorrow due to strong winds aloft. Another system moving toward the Windward Islands should become a tropical depression soon, but it will turn north and not impact the U.S. See the Weather Xtreme video for all the details.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.
CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…
Thanks to Brian Peters and Ashley Brand for covering duties for me while I was away at the National Weather Association annual meeting in Madison, Wisconsin this week, and a special thanks to everyone in Madison for their kindness and hospitality. It was a great conference. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….
Category: Alabama's Weather
About the Author (Author Profile)
James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.Subscribe
If you enjoyed this article, subscribe to receive more just like it.
