Dry with a Warmup Ahead

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Some passing clouds yesterday were about the only evidence that a cold front moved through the area. A bit of fog – quite patchy though – had developed this morning. It should burn off quickly leaving us with a plenty of sunshine as highs climb into the middle 70s.

Looks like we essentially stay dry for the next several days with our next shot for rain – and not a particularly big shot at that – coming late Sunday and early Monday with a fast moving cold front. The upper air pattern which has shown a long wave trough over the eastern half of the country will be replaced with a ridge as the closed low over the Southwest US comes out across the Central US. That closed low will open to an open trough with an associated surface low in the Great Lakes by midday Sunday. A cold front trailing southwest from that surface low will be situated along the Mississippi River as it is poised to move through Alabama and the Southeast US Sunday evening and Monday.

The front should zip through quickly with the trough reaching Southeast Canada by Monday afternoon. With only a little moisture to work with, the front is likely to be accompanied by scattered showers which means that once again some places will see some rain while other spots remain dry. The weather improves late Monday as we dry out again. Under the influence of a maritime air mass, it appears likely that we will remain relatively mild for the foreseeable future. Highs will remain in the lower 80s through Saturday dropping back into the 70s for Sunday through Wednesday.

Severe weather is still expected Saturday, Day 3, from the Red River Valley north-northeastward to the western Great Lakes. While still a ways out, SPC has suggested in their discussion that a significant convective event is a possibility with damaging wind the most likely event. Isolated tornadoes may also be possible.

In the tropics, the two areas, one near the Bahamas and one approaching the Leeward Islands, are still being watched. Conditions appear more favorable for development for either of these systems. The one approaching the Leeward Islands appears likely to track just east of Puerto Rico as it recurves into the Atlantic possible affecting Bermuda.

Long range GFS projections show another rain event around the 25th while much of the second week – aka voodoo country – remains dry and mild with a ridge being the primary factor in the weather across the eastern US.

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James Spann will be winging his way back to Alabama from the National Weather Association (NWA) meeting in Madison, WI, today. So he should be back with the next edition of the Weather Extreme Video unless he sleeps in! And we know that is NOT likely. Have a great day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather