Tag: featured

Unsettled Weather For The Rest Of The Week

| January 16, 2017 @ 3:08 pm

THIS AFTERNOON: Another warm January day with temperatures mostly in the upper 60s and low 70s; just a few isolated showers are over North Alabama. Clouds will thicken tonight with a weakening surface front approaching from the west.

MID-WEEK: We will mention a chance of showers tomorrow and tomorrow night as the front gets close, but there will be little upper support, and rain amounts should be on the light side, generally 1/4″ or less for the places that do see rain. Otherwise, the sky will remain mostly cloudy and tomorrow’s high will be in the low 70s.

The front will wash out Wednesday, and while we will still mention a chance of widely scattered showers, a decent part of the day should be dry. The high Wednesday will be in the 65-70 degree range, and the sky will feature more clouds than sun.

The next wave from the west will bring rain into the state Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. This one will have better dynamics, and we could see some strong thunderstorms Thursday night. But, at the moment it looks like the best instability will be a little west of Alabama, and for now the overall severe weather threat looks fairly low. Rain amounts of 1/2 to 1 inch look likely with this system.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Rain and storms should end early in the day Friday, and the sun should break out with temperatures rising back into the low to mid 70s as the warm January a pattern continues. Then, over the weekend, a rather robust weather system will approach from the west. We will mention a chance of showers during the day Saturday as the Gulf of Mexico will be “wide open”, but the main event will come Saturday night and Sunday with rain and thunderstorms. The latest GFS is trending a little slower, suggesting the main threat of strong storms will come Sunday. And, with much better instability, severe storms could certainly be a possibility. Still a little too early to be specific about timing and the overall magnitude of the threat.

On the positive side, rain amounts over the weekend could approach 2 inches… don’t forget the northern half of the state is still in a drought.

NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: Monday looks cloudy and much cooler with a chance of some light rain; the high will drop back into the low to mid 50s, where we should be in January. And, the pattern will favor even colder air toward the end of the month.

See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30 CT… you can watch it live here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

A Warm Mid-January Day Out There At Midday

| January 16, 2017 @ 1:18 pm

Another terrific January day for us all across Central Alabama at the midday hour. Our Monday is highlighted by a mix of sun and clouds, and temperatures that continue to run 20-25 degrees above average for this time of year.

There are a few light showers showing up on the radar, but these are concentrated over the northwestern parts of the area. Temperatures this afternoon are into the 70s again, and overall it is hard to get better weather than this time of year. Tonight, expect passing clouds, and we are likely to see some areas of fog develop after midnight, and lows should hold into the upper 50s.

Temperatures Across Central Alabama
At 1:12 PM, temperatures are ranging from the upper 60s in the northwestern parts of the area, to the upper 70s in the southern parts of the area. The warm spots are currently Montgomery and Eufaula at 79 degrees. The cool spot is Haleyville at 68 degrees.

Birmingham’s Climatology And Records
The normal high for January 16th is 52, while the normal low is 32. The record high for today was set back in 1943 at 77 degrees. The record low was set back in 1972 at 7 degrees.

Tuesday’s Forecast
A weakening surface front will bring the chance of showers to the state tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night, but with little dynamic support, that means no severe weather, and likely little to no thunder. Otherwise, skies will be mostly cloudy, and highs will be in the 70s throughout Central Alabama. Rainfall amounts should be on the light side, with less than 0.50 inches expected.

For Those Who Are Beach Bound
Partly sunny days with mostly cloudy nights throughout the week, with a slight chance of rain each day through Wednesday, and increasing for the end of the week. Highs will be in the 70s, with lows in the 60s. Click here to see the Beach Forecast Center page.

National High & Low Temperature
The warmest high temperature for the United States on Sunday was 86 degrees, recorded at several locations in Texas (McAllen, Edinburg, Cotulla, and Faifurrias). The coldest low temperature for the United States on Sunday night into early this morning was -37 degrees, recorded at Stanley, Idaho.

On This Day In Weather History: 1989
Strong chinook winds plagued much of the state of Wyoming. Winds gusted to 80 mph at Cody, and wind gusts to 100 mph were reported in eastern and northwestern Wyoming.

World Class Tennis Returns To Birmingham
The BJCC will host the first-round tie against Switzerland February 3rd-5th. Single-day tickets are on sale now. Get them while they last! Buy tickets here.

Central Alabama Chapter Of The NWA
The Central Alabama Chapter of the National Weather Association will be hosting famed engineer and storm chaser Tim Marshall. He will speak at Vulcan Museum on the evening of Tuesday, January 24th. This is an event you won’t want to miss. Look for details on the chapter’s website.

Follow The Blog On Social Media
Remember that we are also on Facebook and on Twitter.

WeatherBrains
This is the weekly netcast that’s all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists at ABC 33/40. You can listen anytime on the web, or on iTunes. You can find it here.

Forecaster: Scott Martin (Twitter: @scottmartinwx)

Increasing Rain Chances Later This Week

| January 16, 2017 @ 5:19 am

STILL WARM FOR JANUARY: An upper low lifted out of the Southwest U.S. over the weekend, and brought severe storms to parts of Texas last night, but the main energy from that feature will remain well to the west and north of Alabama today, and accordingly our weather won’t change much. A mix of sun and clouds, and a high in the low 70s this afternoon, about 20 degrees above average for January. Very cold air continues over the northern U.S… but the upper air pattern won’t allow it to move southward in the short term.

MID-WEEK: A weakening surface front will bring the chance of showers to the state tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night, but with little dynamic support rain amounts should be on the light side, and I doubt if we hear much thunder. Slightly drier air works into the state Wednesday with generally dry conditions and only a few scattered showers. The high will drop back slightly into the mid to upper 60s Wednesday.

The next wave approaching from the west will bring more rain to Alabama Thursday afternoon and especially Thursday night; we could deal with a few strong thunderstorms with some unstable air involved, but for now the overall severe weather threat looks low.

FRIDAY: Showers and storms should end Friday morning with drier air working into the state Friday afternoon. Still warm with a high in the 70s.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: A rather robust system will bring rain and storms back to the state, and it looks like we could very well have a risk of severe storms Saturday night. SPC has put the southern half of the state in a severe weather risk on the “Day 6” outlook, and that will probably be pulled northward later this week as a strong upper trough will support a deepening surface low to the west of Alabama. Too early to be really specific on the threat; just something to watch for now.

On the positive side, some beneficial rain is likely over the next seven days, with potential for over three inches in many places. Keep in mind the northern half of Alabama remains in a drought.

NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: Cooler air returns to the state next week, and evidence highs will drop into the 40s, with lows below freezing by the end of the month as the pattern flips.

See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

Near Record Warmth Again

| January 15, 2017 @ 1:58 pm

The temperature at the Birmingham Airport (based on 5-minute data) has reached 73F at 130 p.m. This is exactly where we were yesterday, so a high of 75 or 76 looks likely.

There is a difference in temperature across the state with a cold front hanging around in the I-59 Corridor. Lower 70s are common along I-20 with middle 70s to the south. To the north, low and middle 60s are common.

There is a good supply of clouds across the area, but some sun is peeking through.

Regional radars are clear despite the presence of the front.

We stay dry overnight, but some showers may show up on Monday during the heating of the day. Highs will be in the lower and middle 70s.

Rain will slowly move in from the northwest during the day on Tuesday and might continue into Wednesday. That event should bring around an inch of rain, which will be greatly appreciated. Rain will continue in the forecast all week.

Spring-like Warmth Continues

| January 15, 2017 @ 7:12 am

Yesterday was another day with several records falling across the state as the upper ridge in place allowed an unseasonably warm air mass to sit in place. Birmingham reached 76° which was just short of the record of 78°, but Tuscaloosa hit 75° which tied the old record set in 1960. Anniston reached 76° beating the old record of 73° set in 2007. Huntsville climbed to 76° smashing their old record of 71° in 2007, and even Mobile beat their record of 78° from 1971 by making it to 79°.

This morning we find clouds across much of the Southeast US along with some fog. Dense fog advisories were in place until about 9 am for areas along the Gulf Coast as well as along the stationary front from South Carolina through northern Mississippi to Northeast Texas. Good southerly flow will keep us warm in spite of the clouds with highs once again in the 70s. We could see record highs tied or broken this afternoon. Records for today include Birmingham 78 set in 1947, Anniston 73 set in 1950, Tuscaloosa 76 set in 1950, and Montgomery 50 set in 1950. The winter weather mess continued in the Central US.

For those headed to the beach, partly to mostly sunny weather continues for much of the week with a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day after today. Highs will be in the lower 70s throughout the forecast period. See the complete Gulf Coast 7 Day Planner here.

Severe weather today is possible over a large chunk of Central Texas as a strong upper level short wave ejects out of northern Mexico. SPC only highlights a marginal risk for Day 2 and Day 3.

For much of the next 7 days, the GFS maintains a trough over the Southwest US and northern Mexico. That pattern will result in several short waves coming out of the main trough with one Monday, one on Friday, and finally the main trough ejecting across the Lower Mississippi River Valley on Monday/Tuesday. A northern stream short wave provides a glancing blow for us in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame.

The first short wave comes out across the top of the ridge on Monday and that will drag a cold front into the Southeast US on Tuesday. A short wave in the northern stream comes in right behind the one coming out of the Southwest US knocking the ridge down and pushing the dissipating front a little further south. So there is a chance for some showers and rain from late in the day Tuesday into Wednesday. There is a little bit of instability so the possibility exists for us to hear a little thunder, but I do not expect to see severe storms. Temperatures are forecast to remain relatively warm with highs in the 70s Monday and Tuesday cooling only slightly into the 60s for Wednesday and Thursday. While rain chances are not high with the system Tuesday/Wednesday, they do improve with the system on Friday resulting in rainfall amounts across Central Alabama in the range of one half to one and one half inches.

Shower chances remain with the front dangling across Central Alabama on Thursday. Friday, a strong short wave coming across the Central Mississippi River Valley will result in a surface low in the vicinity of St. Louis with a cold front pushing eastward across the Southeast US. This looks promising for a good rain event for Central Alabama with some concerns for the potential for severe weather. There are too many model differences and a good amount of uncertainty this far out, so there is no specific forecast for this event just yet. But the is enough concern to remain vigilant and keep a watchful eye on this event.

An upper ridge develops quickly along the US East Coast on Saturday, so we should be dry and relatively warm with highs in the 60s. The big event as we saw yesterday and as we see again today is for a major trough/closed low to come out of the Southwest US into Texas on Sunday and move across the Lower Mississippi River on Monday. If this pattern does verify, then we are looking at the potential for a fairly serious severe weather episode across a good chunk of the Southeast US. Again, model differences and uncertainty this far out preclude a specific severe weather forecast, but the evolution of this feature will need to be watched carefully in future model runs.

Looking out into voodoo country, the big system goes by on Tuesday while another trough digs into the western US and comes out across the Central Plains in the Wednesday/Thursday time frame. By Friday, January 27th, the GFS takes the upper flow over the Southeast US into a ridge pattern while it digs another substantial trough into Baja California around the 30th. So the pattern remains pretty active for the rest of January.

DAVIS CUP SINGLE DAY TICKETS ON SALE NOW: The U.S. will face Switzerland at the BJCC February 3rd-5th in the first round for the Davis Cup. Single-day tickets are on sale today. Buy tickets here.

James Spann will have the next edition of the Weather Xtreme video posted here first thing on Monday morning. I hope you have a great day with an opportunity to enjoy the warm weather. Godspeed.

-Brian-

Splendid Warm January Saturday

| January 14, 2017 @ 2:52 pm

Once again I am having to do a double and triple look at the calendar as the weather is feeling more like early April compared to mid-January across the state. Near record warmth continues to highlight our forecast, and it is hard to believe that just a week ago, we were iced in and temperatures were unable to climb above freezing.

Not the case today as we are once again seeing a mix of sun and clouds this afternoon.

This afternoon, temperatures have once again been able to climb well into the 70s. Today’s record high for Birmingham is 78° set back in 1932, I don’t think we will reach that today, but we will just have to wait and see later today.

TONIGHT: Another very mild night as lows will only settle down into the lower to mid 50s for most us, which is actually where our average highs should be this time of year. With the continued very moist air mass in place, we are once again going to see areas of fog develop after midnight, and it could be quite dense in many locations. Keep that in mind first thing tomorrow morning.

FOR SUNDAY: More of the same as the spring-like weekend of weather continues. We are going to see more sun than clouds, with very mild and near record highs as mid to upper 70s are expected. Overall a superb Sunday of weather, especially for January. The record high for Birmingham tomorrow is also 78° set back in 1932.

Temperatures Reminiscent of Spring

| January 14, 2017 @ 7:03 am

A dense fog advisory was in effect until 9 am for the northern third of Alabama roughly along and north of the I-20 corridor. Friday was a warm day for mid-January in Central Alabama. So warm, in fact, that record highs were either set or tied. Birmingham’s high for Friday was 78 breaking the old record of 77 set in 1932. Montgomery’s high was 81 breaking the old record of 79 set in 1907. Anniston’s high was 75 which tied the record set in 1995. Tuscaloosa came close, too, with a high of 78 which was one degree shy of the record high of 79 set in 1972.

After the foggy conditions improve, we should see a mix of sun and clouds today with our afternoon highs climbing into the middle 70s. Once again the record highs for today will be in jeopardy. The records for today include:
Anniston 73 (2007)
Birmingham 78 (1932)
Tuscaloosa 75 (1960)
Montgomery 80 (1932)

If your plans include the beach, you can expect partly to mostly sunny skies through the weekend and into early next week. A chance of showers and thunderstorms returns for Martin Luther King Day through mid-week. Highs will be at or just over 70 degrees throughout the forecast period. See the complete Gulf Coast 7 Day Planner here.

While the Southeast US was enjoying weather more typical of Spring than January, a broad swath of the country from the Oklahoma Panhandle to southern Pennsylvania was experiencing icing issues. The pinks and purples were primarily winter weather warnings for ice while the off-blue color on the map indicated areas under a winter storm watch.

The upper air pattern is one that we should be fairly familiar with. The current pattern featured a strong upper ridge over the northeastern Gulf Coast with a very deep trough and closed low near Baja California. This pattern was tapping into Pacific moisture that was riding into the Central US along the front dividing the warmer air over the Southeast US from the cold air in the Central US and creating a great deal of issues.

The upper trough over Baja California will remain in place through Thursday, but a fairly sizable short wave will be ejecting out to the northeast reaching the Great Lakes in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame. While all of this action is going on to the northwest and north of us, we stay in spring-like weather with a mix of sun and clouds and highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s.

Tuesday into Wednesday the pattern begins a shift as the upper ridge gets beaten down by short waves coming out of northern Mexico. This pattern will once again drag a front into our area early Wednesday giving us a likely chances for rain. Rainfall amounts for us are likely to remain less than an inch with most locations getting rain seeing less than half an inch. We stay unsettled on Thursday with small chances for rain with the stationary front stalled in the area, generally along the I-20 corridor. A potent short wave comes out of the Southwest US on Friday ramping up rain chances once again. Temperatures will remain unseasonably warm into the weekend.

By Saturday, the upper air pattern continues to show a trough over the western US with the ridge pumping up along the US eastern seaboard. This keeps us in a southwesterly flow, so we probably won’t be clearing out much with some chance for rain. Temperatures will remain mild but shrink from being near record levels.

The longer range outlook from the GFS presents a really strong trough coming out across the Mississippi River Valley on Monday. This pattern with a surface low in the vicinity of Paducah, KY, would suggest the potential for a round of severe weather, but this is into voodoo country, so we’ll need to maintain a watchful eye on this to see if it does develop. The upper pattern goes chilly with a trough along the Mississippi River by Tuesday the 24th. By Thursday, the 26th, the GFS has gone nearly zonal with the pattern as yet another trough begins to take shape digging into the Southwest US.

DAVIS CUP SINGLE DAY TICKETS ON SALE NOW: The U.S. will face Switzerland at the BJCC February 3rd-5th in the first round for the Davis Cup. Single-day tickets are on sale today. Buy tickets here.

I plan to have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted here between 7 and 7:30 tomorrow morning. Enjoy the spring-like weather and have a great day. Godspeed.

-Brian-

Record Highs Set In Central Alabama Today

| January 13, 2017 @ 9:57 pm

Friday was a really warm day for mid-January in Central Alabama, so warm that record highs were either set or tied.

Birmingham’s high for Friday was 78F, breaking the old record of 77F set back in 1932.

Montgomery’s high was 81F, breaking the old record of 79F set back in 1907.

Anniston’s high was 75F, tying the record set back in 1995.