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Rain Moving Out; Several Rounds of Severe Weather Possible Over the Weekend

| January 19, 2017 @ 9:12 pm

The line of thunderstorms is now into Georgia above Randolph County. South of there, they curve back to the east of Wedowee, Alexander City and Wetumpka.

The storms are at the vanguard of an area of moderate to occasionally heavy rain that is about 35 miles wide.

An areal flood advisory was just issued for Autauga and Almore Counties.

The rain has now ended in the Birmingham area, but to the northwest, showers continue across the northwestern part of the state. Everything is lifting to the northeast at about 30 mph.

The rain will be out of the area after midnight and lows will drop into the middle and upper 50s.

Current satellite/radar with isobars and temperatures.

Tomorrow will be a pretty nice day: partially sunny with mild temperatures in the middle 70s and a balmy southerly wind. The day should be dry.

An areas of showers and storms will overspread the state after midnight Friday night, affecting much of the area Saturday morning. Severe weather is a threat with this system, especially with a strengthening low level jet and strong winds aloft. The threat should be south of I-20, and more significant the further south that you go.

There could be additional development during the afternoon on Saturday, which could also be severe, but this is a little more doubtful because of the morning convection. But the environment will be set for severe storms through the later afternoon and into the overnight as we find ourselves in the warm sector of a developing low that will track near Memphis.

The storms will continue into Sunday morning. More storms may develop ahead of the eventual cold front on Sunday afternoon, with some threat for additional severe weather.

All modes of severe weather will be possible with this slow moving system. Please pay close attention to the latest updates and forecasts throughout the weekend, starting tomorrow.

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Rain and Storms Pushing East

| January 19, 2017 @ 6:36 pm

A band of rain and thunderstorms continues pushing east across Central Alabama this evening.

At 635 p.mm. it extends from Fort Payne to Pell City to west of Talladega to west of Rockford and west of Prattsville this into Southwest Alabama.

The heaviest weather is over southern Talladea County extending into western Coosa County into Autauga County.

Further southwest, a severe thunderstorm warning is in effect for parts of Wilcox County.

So far, no warnings in the NWS Birmingham county warning area, which is great news. There is still a small chance of severe weather ahead of the main line of storms.

Here is the radar reflectivity on the left and rainfall that has fallen on the right.

Beneficial rains are falling. I have picked up 1.60 inches here in Vestavia. Only 1.08 inches of ran through 6 p.m. at the Birmingham Airport but it was continuing to rain.

There is an areal flood advisory, less serious than a flood warning, for parts of Chilton County where 1.5-2 inches of rain has fallen with more rain coming. Some minor flooding will occur there.

Rain is continuous back into Mississippi, back the back edge is coming over the border near Meridian.

Rain will end from the southwest over the next 3-4 hours. It should end in Birmingham by 11 p.m.

New forecast data indicates that between 1.5-2.5 inches of rain will fall across much of Central Alabama between now and Monday morning. Lesser amounts are expected along the Alabama/Mississippi border closer to 1-1.25 inches.

Severe weather is still a significant threat for the weekend. Stay tuned.

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Another Storm Worth Watching In NW Autauga County

| January 19, 2017 @ 4:45 pm

A thunderstorm that is showing some rotation along with a good bit of lightning and heavy precipitation is currently to the southwest of Billingsley and moving to the north-northeast near 30 MPH. There is no current warning on the storm, but if you are in the path of this storm be prepared to take cover if a warning is issued. Locations in the path of this cell are Billingsley and Clanton.

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Keeping Our Eyes On A Strong Storm In SW Chilton County

| January 19, 2017 @ 4:16 pm

A thunderstorm in southwestern Chilton County that has just passed to the west of Maplesville is currently below severe criteria, but is showing some rotation and a bounded weak echo region, along with heavy precipitation. Heads up if you are in the path of this cell, and be prepared to take action if a warning is issued. Jemison and Thorsby will be the next in line for this cell, but it will stay west of Clanton.

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Rain/Storms Tonight; More Storms Saturday

| January 19, 2017 @ 4:11 pm

**No Weather Xtreme video this afternoon due to travel; I am writing this from the Tampa Airport… will be back later tonight**

RADAR CHECK: A large mass of rain and storms continues to move across Alabama; some of the heaviest rain late this afternoon is close to I-65…

The lack of instability should prevent any severe weather issues across North Alabama tonight, but severe storms are possible over the southern half of Alabama…

An isolated tornado is not totally out of the question this evening.

Some flooding is possible in low lying areas tonight, and rain amounts of 1-2″ are likely. The rain tapers off soon after midnight.

TOMORROW: A decent part of the day tomorrow will be dry; morning clouds should give way to some afternoon sun, and the high will be in the 70-73 degree range.

WEEKEND SEVERE STORMS: A complex pattern will set up across the Deep South with a deep upper trough just to the west with strong wind fields working with unstable air and deep layer shear. The first batch of storms seems likely Saturday morning… sometime between 5:00 a.m. and 12:00 noon… based on the high resolution NAM model.

SPC has the standard “slight risk” of severe weather defined for the southern two-thirds of the state Saturday.

The air becomes very unstable Saturday afternoon, and another round of strong to severe storms is possible during the late afternoon and nighttime hours, but model output is not consistent, and it remains to be seen if the best severe weather parameters will align at that point. We need to get past tonight’s storms to see the state of the atmosphere, and we will be able to give you specific details on the timing and magnitude of the weekend severe weather threat. It is simply too early to call on the potential event Saturday afternoon and Saturday night.

Storms could very well linger into Sunday morning, but the best risk of storms will shift east of Alabama by mid to late afternoon.

NEXT WEEK: Monday will be cloudy, breezy, and much cooler with some light rain at times; the high will be in the low to mid 50s. Then, even colder air should arrive toward the end of the week.

As always, watch me for the full weather story on ABC 33/40 News this evening at 4, 5, 6, and 10:00!

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I will be back in Alabama late tonight, and the next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

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A Midday Update On Central Alabama’s Weather

| January 19, 2017 @ 12:25 pm

Currently at the midday hour, rain and a few embedded thunderstorms have pushed their way into the western parts of Central Alabama. Most of the rain activity at this point is west of a line from Jasper to Brent to Selma. Currently there are no severe watches and warnings in effect for the southeastern states. Hardly any lightning showing up with this rain shield as well. For those not receiving any rainfall at the moment, you have cloudy skies overhead.

Even though the SPC has much of the southern 2/3rds of the state in a “Marginal Risk” for severe weather today, I do believe that this will mainly be a heavy rain event for Central Alabama. The forecast soundings still look to be too saturated for a big severe weather event, and poor lapse rates and unidirectional wind flow (shear) are limiting factors as well. A few storms could reach severe limits with gusty winds and small hail, and the chance of a small tornado is not out of the question, even though the likely hood is very low. The main window for any stronger storms will be from now until midnight. Rain totals by the end of the day could be as high as 2 to 3 inches, so we could very well have some localized flash flooding events. Highs will be in the mid 60s to the upper 70s across Central Alabama, with overnight lows in the mid 50s to low 60s.

Temperatures Across Central Alabama
At 12:15 PM, temperatures are ranging from the upper 50s to the mid 70s across the area. The warm spot is currently Eufaula at 76 degrees. The cool spot is Gadsden at 59 degrees.

Birmingham’s Climatology And Records
The normal high for January 19th is 53, while the normal low is 32. The record high for today was set back in 1982 at 76 degrees. The record low was set back in 1940 at 2 degrees.

An Active Friday Night Possible
A complex weather pattern is setting up for Central Alabama with multiple rounds of rain and storms moving through the area for tomorrow through the weekend. A deep upper trough with strong wind fields will be approaching the area, and with steep lapse rates, high instability values, and deep layer shear, we will need to be weather aware through Sunday morning.

During the day, it will be mostly dry across the area, but a few isolated showers could pop up during the day. These will be small and nature and not long lasting. The main action will be during the late night and into the morning on Saturday. Highs will be in the 70s.

The SPC has the much of the south and western parts of the state in a “Marginal Risk” for severe storms, with the southwest corner in a “slight risk” for severe storms. We really need to get through today’s round of storms before we can really get a good idea on timing and magnitude of tomorrow’s threat. As of now, all modes of severe weather look to be possible, including damaging straight line winds, hail, and tornadoes. Timing as of now appears to be from 9:00 PM on Friday night through 9:00 AM on Saturday morning.

For Those Who Are Beach Bound
Thunderstorms will be likely from now until the end of the weekend, but sunshine returns for the beginning of the week. Highs will be in the 70s through the weekend, then dropping back into the 60s for the start of the week. Click here to see the Beach Forecast Center page.

On This Day In Weather History: 1988
A powerful storm hit the central U.S. producing blizzard conditions in the Central High Plains, and severe thunderstorms in the Lower Mississippi Valley. Snowfall totals ranged up to 36 inches at Wolf Creek Pass CO, with 31 inches at Elsmere NE. Tornadoes claimed five lives in Tennessee, and a tornado at Cullman AL injured 35 persons.

Central Alabama Chapter Of The NWA
The Central Alabama Chapter of the National Weather Association will be hosting famed engineer and storm chaser Tim Marshall. He will speak at Vulcan Museum starting at 6:00 PM on the evening of Tuesday, January 24th. This is an event you won’t want to miss. Look for details on the chapter’s website.

Follow The Blog On Social Media
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WeatherBrains
This is the weekly netcast that’s all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists at ABC 33/40. You can listen anytime on the web, or on iTunes. You can find it here.

Forecaster: Scott Martin (Twitter: @scottmartinwx)

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Weather By The Numbers: 1/19/2017

| January 19, 2017 @ 10:48 am

Here is the latest in the world of numbers dealing with the weather. All of these totals are up to the end of the day on Wednesday, January 18, 2017. Enjoy.

Temperatures
85F – Warmest high for the contiguous United States during the last 24 hours (Marathon, FL).
113.5F – Warmest high from around the world during the last 24 hours (Vioolsdrif, South Africa).
-8F – Coldest low for the contiguous United States during the last 24 hours (Big Piney, WY).
-63.6F – Coldest low from around the world during the last 24 hours (Delyankir, Russia).
60.8F – Average high temperature for Birmingham so far for January 2017.
43.5F – Average low temperature for Birmingham so far for January 2017.
52.2F – Average temperature for Birmingham so far for January 2017.
8.2F – Degrees above normal that Birmingham’s average temperature is running for January 2017.
78F – Warmest high temperature for Birmingham so far for January 2017 (set on 1/13).
13F – Coldest low temperature for Birmingham so far for January 2017 (set on 1/8).

Precipitation
1.90 – Highest rainfall total (in inches) for the contiguous United States during the last 24 hours (Augusta, GA).
5.87 – Highest rainfall total (in inches) from around the world during the last 24 hours (Tahiti-Faaa, French Polynesia).
2.56 – Amount of rainfall (in inches) for Birmingham so far for January 2017.
-0.13 – Departure from normal (in inches) for Birmingham so far for January 2017.
1.72 – Greatest 24-hour rainfall total (in inches) for Birmingham so far for January 2017 (set on 1/2).
0.3 – Amount of snow (in inches) for Birmingham so far for January 2017.

Severe Weather
6 – Reported tornadoes for Alabama since January 1.
53 – Reported tornadoes for the contiguous United States since January 1.
1 – Reported hail events for Alabama since January 1 (quarter-size hail, Sumter County).
40 – Reported hail events for the contiguous United States since January 1.
16 – Reported damaging wind events for Alabama since January 1.
354 – Reported damaging wind events for the contiguous United States since January 1.

Information gathered from NWS Birmingham, the Storm Prediction Center, and Ogimet.com.

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Stormy Weather Pattern Through The Weekend

| January 19, 2017 @ 5:25 am

ACTIVE JANUARY WEATHER: We will be dealing with multiple rounds of rain and storms across Alabama through the weekend, with some potential for severe weather along the way.

TODAY/TONIGHT: SPC has parts of Central and South Alabama in a “marginal” risk for severe storms over the next 24 hours…

Rain is already falling over parts of the state this morning, and as an upper trough gets closer, rain and storms will be more widespread this afternoon and tonight. With this widespread rain, instability values will be limited, and with forecast soundings looking rather saturated, the overall severe weather threat seems pretty limited.

TIMING: Main window for the stronger storms will come from 3:00 this afternoon through about 12:00 midnight.

THREATS: Some of the heavier storms could produce gusty winds and small hail. The chance of a small tornado is pretty small, but not zero.

RAIN: Data from the RPM model suggests we could very well see some spots getting over 2 inches of rain over the next 24 hours, and if this verifies we could very well have some localized flash flooding problems. This looks to be more of a heavy rain event as opposed to a severe weather event.

Be sure you can hear severe weather warnings in the event they are needed later today and tonight.

TOMORROW AND THE WEEKEND: A complex severe weather pattern is setting up for Alabama, and we really need to get past the round of storms today and tonight before we can really be confident on forecasting timing of the various rounds of storms, and the overall magnitude of the event.

A deep upper trough with strong wind fields will approach from the west, and with high instability values, deep layer shear, and steep lapse rates, we will all have to pay close attention to the weather late tomorrow through Sunday morning. This is the current thinking on the timing…

ROUND ONE: The first round of severe storms is possible from about 9:00 p.m. tomorrow through 9:00 a.m. Saturday, generally over the southern half of the state. SPC has Southwest Alabama in the standard “slight risk”, with a “marginal risk” up to Tuscaloosa and Birmingham…

ROUND TWO: The air becomes very unstable by Saturday afternoon, and a few scattered severe storms are possible from about 2:00 p.m. until 8:00 p.m. Saturday over the state, including North Alabama. This round is a little “iffy” with the best dynamics a little to the west; much will depend on how the “round one” event impacts the airmass over the state.

ROUND THREE: A final round is likely from about 12:00 midnight Saturday night through 9:00 a.m. Sunday; this is when the best dynamic forcing will be in place.

SPC has most of Alabama in the standard “slight risk” for Saturday, Saturday night, and early Sunday morning (the Day 3 outlook runs from 6:00 a.m. Saturday to 6:00 a.m. Sunday)…

All modes of severe weather will be possible with the weekend storms, including damaging straight line winds, hail, and tornadoes. We will be much more specific about the threat tomorrow morning, but just understand you will need to pay close attention to the weather over the weekend.

NEXT WEEK: Monday will be windy and cooler with clouds and some lingering light rain; the high will drop into the 50s. And, even colder air arrives later in the week with highs dropping into the 40s. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

As always, watch me for the full weather story on ABC 33/40 News this evening at 4, 5, 6, and 10:00!

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram
Snapchat: spannwx

I am in Tampa this morning for a company meeting, but will return later today. Most likely I won’t be able to produce a video this afternoon, but we will have forecast notes and running updates on the thunderstorm situation. Keep a close eye on the blog during this active weather, and enjoy the day!

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