Storms Over Northwest Alabama

A powerful low level jet is screaming across eastern Mississippi, northwestern Alabama and southern Tennessee early this morning. This is allowing storms over northeastern Mississippi to intensify. Lightning has become heavy over parts of Marion and Lamar Counties. Other storms, from Okolona to Tupelo to New Albany have intensified as well These will affect Marion and Franklin counties around 8:30 a.m.

Two main rains of heavy showers extend across Alabama at this hour. One extends from the storms over Northeast Mississippi up to the Huntsville area associated with that upper level disturbance. The other extends from the Birmingham area back into Southwest Alabama.

The storms are not severe as there is just no instability over North or Central Alabama. The airmass is moistening though.

To the southwest, a tornado watch continues for southern Mississippi and southeastern Louisiana. The SPC has recently remarked that a watch is likely for the western Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama. The only real strong storm is passing south of Hattiesburg at this time. A severe thunderstorm warning is in effect.

As these first waves of showers and storms push northeast, there will be some clearing this afternoon. Temperatures will push to near 80F with dewpoints in the upper 60s. This will lead to instability values over 1,500 joules/kg. Bulk shear values will be over 40 knots meaning storms will be organized. Low level helicity will be over 200 m2/s2. This means strong, rotating updrafts and the potential for tornadoes.

The only uncertainty is where the storms will initiate and move. We will be watching mesoscale trends and the radar carefully through the day and tonight.

Stay tuned for frequent updates.

Category: Alabama's Weather, Severe Weather