A Trend Toward Cooler Temperatures

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COOLER DAYS: No doubt we will have cooler weather in the days ahead… but the details are a bit tricky.

A surface front has just about stopped just south of Birmingham… there is quite a thermal/dewpoint gradient on either side of the front… at 5:00 Nashville has a temp/dewpoint of 62/56, while Birmingham is at 71/68. Up in Kentucky, Paducah is at 55/51.

With a southwest flow aloft, the front will be very slow to move south today, so the sky will stay mostly cloudy with a chance of light rain at times. Temperatures won’t get out of the 70s because of the clouds and showers, and ultimately cold air advection.

THE REST OF THE WEEK: We will forecast a clearing sky tomorrow, with the front moving down into Deep South Alabama, along with lower humidity. We will be close to 60 both tomorrow and Wednesday morning, and some spots should visit the 50s for a little taste of fall. Wednesday looks dry with a good supply of sunshine and a high in the low 80s.

The GFS hints at moisture moving into Alabama from the east Thursday, and even suggests a little light rain. Before we go with this idea of some rain Thursday, lets take a look at the 12Z run. Temperatures Thursday and Friday could trend downward with a wedge developing and cooler air moving in from the east.

THE WEEKEND: Saturday looks dry with a high in the low 80s; a little moisture returns Sunday, but for now we won’t really mention any rain until we can get some better clarity.

VOODOO LAND: Still no sign of any major upper trough that will deliver cold air and get us down in the 40s through the rest of September. Plenty of cold air available; we just need a pattern change.

TROPICS: The MJO pulse is over… so things are really quiet across the Atlantic basin. You have to figure we will have one more pulse up before the season ends, but that probably won’t happen before the end of September.

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