Dry and Warm but Rain Coming

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October is one of the best months on the calendar with many cool mornings but warm, sunny days. And there is beginning to be a hint of color in the countryside. While October is the driest month on the calendar for Central Alabama, it can also see some good rain events. The upcoming week should see a bit of all of these.

Today and tomorrow will shape up to be a continuation of beautiful weather with morning lows in the 50s for a cool start and afternoon highs climbing into the middle 80s for those warm afternoons. But there is a change just over the horizon.

A fairly strong trough just to our west will inch closer over the next couple of days. It should be close enough Tuesday for us to see more clouds and perhaps some chance for showers before the day ends. Right now, though, it appears the best chances for rain will come on Wednesday with a cloudy, showery day.

The GFS is suggesting that the rain may linger into Thursday as the upper trough gets separated from the main westerlies. That along with a weak surface low sliding along the boundary could extend the rain into Thursday. Right now, I’m going to stick with the rain ending early on Thursday with some clouds sticking around. That should clear the way for good weather on Friday and Saturday.

But the good weather will be short-lived if the GFS is right. Another upper trough, a strong one, promises to generate a strong surface low across the Central Plains on Sunday and Monday. With the Gulf opening on Sunday and the strong surface front approaching on Monday, we could see another rainy period. But this is also verging on voodoo country, so we’ll be watching these developments and the timing of them.

Speaking of voodoo, the GFS is also saying that we should be lapsing back into the typical dry weather of October in the longer range from the 14th through the 20th.

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Jason Simpson will be working on our Fall weather special Monday, so I’ll be filling in for him on the News at 11 am. I’m really looking forward to the upcoming storytelling festival in Selma next weekend – the Tale Tellin’ Festival. It is one of my favorite yearly events. My wife and I will be setting up the travel trailer at Paul Grist State Park and enjoy the view over the lake there.

James Spann will be back tomorrow morning with the next Weather Xtreme Video. I hope that you have a great Sunday. Godspeed!

-Brian-

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