Model Madness or Reality?

| November 26, 2008 @ 11:34 am | 9 Replies

Just chatting online with Jason Simpson, one of the greatest meteorologists of modern times, and the great American weather legend, JB Elliott, and we were looking over the latest GFS model run – the 12Z run. And it represents a BIG change from the earlier run.

Both runs are depicting a cold Monday, but the 12Z run seems to be faster and somewhat more vigorous with the approaching storm. In fact, IF the 12Z run should be correct, we could be looking at some winter weather possibilities for the Southeast including Alabama.

The age old dilemma for meteorologists in southern climes is the arrival of cold air before the departure of the moisture. We see it many times where the cold air arrives right on the heels of the moisture, so we end up at best with flurries.

This latest run also paints a big change for Saturday with considerably wetter conditions for Iron Bowl action. But as we all should know, models flip on solutions three and four days out, so as James Spann frequently mentions, it’s probably not a good idea to change the forecast just yet until we see if this model trend is picking up on the right solution.

In the meantime, it makes for some great speculation.


PS I hope everyone has a grand Thanksgiving.

Category: Uncategorized

About the Author ()

Brian Peters is one of the television meteorologists at ABC3340 in Birmingham and a retired NWS Warning Coordination Meteorologist. He handles the weekend Weather Xtreme Videos and forecast discussion and is the Webmaster for the popular WeatherBrains podcast.

Leave a Reply

You must be logged in to post a comment.