The Chill Sticks With Us

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Looks like the string of below average temperature is going to be sticking with us for a while longer. As James noted yesterday, the NAO, North Atlantic Oscillation, continues to hint at some slight moderation later in December, however, the latest NAO forecast does not seem nearly as positive as the version James showed. Long range forecasting is a challenge.

For now, though, we remain chilly and dry and that is our forecast through the weekend. Highs should remain in the upper 40s to mid 50s range through Monday with lows mainly in the 20s. It looks like that will change on Tuesday as a new storm system promises rain as well as a brief – and let me stress brief – warm up. As a strong upper level trough moves across the area, a surface low will develop to our west-northwest. The pattern should favor a big increase in moisture so look for clouds and rain. Strong storms might be possible.

The SPC is not yet mentioning any threat because confidence in the forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday is not terribly high. Sure, confidence is high that it will rain, but the various models have different solutions and not all parameters for severe storms appear coming together such as surface instability. However, things like a good low level jet plus some good shear make keeping a wary eye on the situation a wise thought.

Once we get to Wednesday, confidence in the model solutions really goes down since the various models have substantially different projections. The European is much wetter toward the end of the week than the GFS which develops a surface low in the central Gulf. Not much of a jog further north in the surface low development would result in a substantial change to the forecast. But for now we’ll go with the rain exiting our area Wednesday and drying out Thursday. High temperatures drop back into the 50s for the latter half of the week after a mild, perhaps warm day on Tuesday with a high in the mid 60s.

The late Tuesday-Wednesday system looks pretty wet with the possibility that we might see some heavy rain. The HPC forecast suggests 2 to 3 inches of rain across Central Alabama, but I’m not quite so bullish on that. I think 1 to 2 inch amounts are a little more likely.

The end of the upcoming week and the weekend look dry and cool now with some moderation in temperature for the beginning of next week. The next rain prospects come around the 18th and again around the 20th as the GFS suggests a shift to more of a trough in the west pattern. But that is pretty much voodoo!

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I’m very excited about the Fayette Christmas parade today at noon where I will be the Grand Marshall. Plus, I’ve been told I’ll get to ride in a brand new Corvette! Wow. I hope to have pictures later today or tomorrow. I should have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted by 8 am or so tomorrow morning. Godspeed.

-Brian-

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