A Look at the Alabama Severe Weather Situation at 2:15 p.m.

Our line of intense thunderstorms extends from west of Decatur to Cullman to just west of Birmingham to near Centreville to west of Marion to east of Linden.

Severe thunderstorm warnings are in effect along the line all the way from the Tennessee border to northeastern Bibb County.

A tornado warning is in effect for North Alabama’s Limestone County. There is also a tornado warning for Cullman and Morgan Counties. Winds just gusted to 65 mph at Decatur.

INSTABILITY
CAPE are below 1,000 joules/kg over North and West Alabama. East Central Alabama CAPEs are between 1000-15000 joules. This will help the storms hold together all the way across the state. Lapse rates have calmed some over the past couple of hours but are still strong ahead of the line.

UPPER LEVEL WINDS
Winds at 250 mb are still weak across Alabama. Stronger winds will move in later tonight.

LOW LEVEL JET
The low level jet over eastern Mississippi is diminishing. This may be helping the storms to weaken a bit as they push east through the I-65 Corridor.

SURFACE WINDS
Surface winds over Alabama are southerly to southeasterly at 10-20 mph with gusts to above 30 mph. A wind advisory remains in effect for Alabama.

LOW LEVEL HELICITY
Low level helicity is maximized between Birmingham and Huntsville. There is a sweet spot over Cullman. A tornado warning was just issued.

BULK SHEAR
Speed shear is maximized west of I-65 and north of I-59.

COLD FRONT
The cold front is at the Mississippi River now.

WILL STORMS REDEVELOP
More storms will develop over Mississippi late this afternoon and tonight. They will be accompanied by a more favorable upper level wind pattern and strong forcing from the cold front. Heavy rain and damaging winds will be the main threat.

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