Strong Storms This Evening
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Scattered, strong thunderstorms continue to evolve this afternoon in a moist and unstable environment over Alabama. Dewpoints are in the 66 to 71 degree range, and surface based CAPE values are between 1500 and 2500 over the northern half of the state. One inch diameter hail is falling in the campus of the University of Alabama in Huntsville as I write this, and our Skywatcher in Southwest Huntsville says hail has been falling for the last five minutes with very heavy rain.
With relatively cold air aloft and steep lapse rates, large hail will be an issue in a number of storms over North Alabama this afternoon and early tonight. The tornado threat looks minimal, but we can’t rule out a few rotating storms.
Unfortunately a big, widespread beneficial rain event is not especially likely; in the stronger storms some neighborhoods might see one inch of rain, but due to the scattered nature of the storms rainfall distribution will not be even. Some communities might see less than one-quarter of an inch of rain.
Showers and storms will end during the pre-dawn hours tomorrow as a cold front moves south of here. Much cooler air will follow the showers; the high tomorrow will be only in the upper 60s despite the return of sunshine.
APRIL COLD SNAP: No real change in our thinking for the end of the week and the Easter weekend… the latest NAM (12Z) now prints 34 for Thursday morning and 33 for Friday morning (for Birmingham)… and the GFS continues to suggest the coldest morning will come Easter Sunday. The 12Z MOS from the GFS shows 31 for Birmingham early Sunday… actual lows will probably vary from 26 to 35 early Sunday, with the valley locations reaching the mid 20s.
LONG RANGE: The latest GFS doesn’t show much hope for a big rain event early next week… showers will be possible by Tuesday afternoon (April 11), but amounts at this point look to be light. Better rain events show up around April 14 and April 17.
WEATHER PARTY: Get all the latest weather news over on our sister site, WeatherParty.com. Be sure and register while you are there; you can submit stories and vote on them to determine what is published on the front page. The Colorado State 2007 tropical season forecast issued today; that is one of the stories featured.
I had a great time speaking with the kids in the pre-school program at Trinity United Methodist Church this morning in Homewood… look for them on the KIDCAM today on ABC 33/40 News at 5:00!
**A new severe thunderstorm watch has just been issued for a large part of North Alabama… includes Jefferson County and points to the north.**
Must get back to the radar desk… I will have the next Weather Xtreme video posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!
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