Warm, Dry First Part of Weekend

Partly cloudy skies are expected across Central Alabama for the first day of the Memorial Day weekend with temperatures climbing once again to highs in the middle 80s. While our weather is very nice, a weak frontal system draped across the Mid-South area is producing thunderstorms in Northeast Arkansas where a severe thunderstorm watch is in effect through noon. The upper ridge pushing northward from the Gulf of Mexico is expected to keep the active weather north of Central Alabama today.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has posted their seasonal outlook for the 2017 hurricane season which begins in just five days. It’s interesting to note that the NHC forecast calls for above normal activity while the forecast out of Colorado State calls for below normal activity. But no matter what the seasonal outlooks say, it is imperative that everyone along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts prepare because it only takes one storm affecting your area to produce significant risk to life and property.

The front is forecast to remain weak and north of us on Sunday, so highs will once again top out in the middle and upper 80s.

A strong upper trough over the western Great Lakes will dampen the ridge and nudge it eastward Monday. This upper air change will allow the front to sag into the Southeast US forcing rain chances up significantly. Looks like Memorial Day could be fairly wet with showers and thunderstorms. SPC has an area of slight risk along the front from southern Mississippi to the Carolinas which includes a chunk of Central and South Alabama. Temperatures remain warm but reduced slightly with highs mainly in the lower 80s.

The upper air pattern does not change a great deal through Thursday, so with a dissipating frontal boundary in the area, you can expect to see showers and thunderstorms each day driven primarily by the heat of the day. We won’t see much change in daily highs, either, with readings in the lower 80s. While the pattern does not suggest rainfall amounts nearly as high as we saw last week, it does suggest the potential for getting some additional beneficial rains.

An upper ridge, albeit a weak one, begins to become the primary player in the upper air pattern for us Friday and Saturday. This will help to raise high temperatures into the middle 80s, but it is unlikely to do much to change the daily threat of showers and thunderstorms.

Looking out into voodoo country, the GFS keeps the Southeast US just to the east of an upper ridge. That ridge axis stays just to our west, so the long range temperature outlook is for warm but not exceedingly hot temperatures and summer-like shower potential.

SEC BASEBALL: The SEC Baseball Tournament returns to the Hoover Met, May 23-28. Come see some of the best college players in the country as they compete for the championship. Also, for the first time ever, you can take advantage of the Hoover Metropolitan Complex which will feature a free, indoor Fan Fest – ferris wheel, sports bar and much more! Tickets start at only $9! We expect warm, dry weather at the Hoover Met today with highs in the 80s. There is just a small risk of showers Sunday afternoon for the championship game. Sunday’s high will be between 85 and 88.

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I expect to have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted here around 7 am on Sunday morning. Enjoy the start to your Memorial Day weekend. Godspeed.

-Brian-

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