Wet/Stormy Weather Ahead

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NO DULL MOMENTS: The highlights are the potential for strong to severe storms late tomorrow and tomorrow night, and an Arctic blast next week. We need to get the rain/storm event out of here before we can really be specific on the cold weather next week… so let’s focus today on the short term. Be sure and watch the Weather Xtreme video for all of the graphics associated with this discussion.

RIGHT NOW: Looks like our surface boundary is running from near Jacksonville to Verbena to Selma to Thomasville. South of that boundary, temperatures are in the 60s with a few thin spots in the overcast. To the north, low clouds and fog cover much of North Alabama with temperatures only in the 40s over the northwest counties of our state, with 50s along the I-20/59 corridor.

TONIGHT: The boundary should move very slowly northward tonight as a warm front, and rain should become widespread north of the front. The NWS in Huntsville continues a flash flood watch for all counties in their CWA; the Tennessee Valley of North Alabama plus Cullman County. Rain totals of 2 to 4 inches are likely in this part of the state. We do note the 12Z models have some in with the axis of heavier rain a little to the south; we might have to look at some flood potential in that area between I-20 and U.S. 278 as well if this verifies. We will mention periods of rain tonight, with the heaviest rain north of Birmingham.

SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW? As Dr. Coleman points out below, the 12Z runs are not as bullish on severe weather for the northern half of Alabama with hardly any surface based instability values; the best combination of instability and shear seems to be over the central and southern part of the state, and SPC has trimmed the northern part of their slight risk area (see the Weather Xtreme video). Still, with thunderstorms in Alabama, expect the unexpected; we recommend that everyone pay attention to the weather tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night, especially from Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Anniston, and point south. It sure looks more like a heavy rain threat as opposed to a severe weather threat for folks north of I-20.

SHARPLY COLDER WEDNESDAY: Guidance is colder for Wednesday, which sure makes sense considering the cold air just west and north of Alabama (ice issues are cropping up as close as Dallas and Memphis this afternoon). I get the idea we will be in the 40s all day Wednesday with some potential for light rain or drizzle during the morning; a few snow flurries are possible over the northern third of the state, where places like Huntsville and Muscle Shoals probably won’t get out of the 30s.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: These days look dry with seasonal temperatures (50s during the day; 30s at night). The sky should be partly to mostly sunny.

WEEKEND PREVIEW: A surface boundary will slip through on Saturday with a chance of showers, but rain should not be especially heavy with only limited moisture. Cooler and drier will arrive Sunday with a good supply of sunshine.

ARCTIC BLAST NEXT WEEK: With a full blown negative NAO and high amplitude upper air pattern across North America, the gates to the Yukon will be open next week (and, with this, will come the haters, know-it-alls, and trolls on the blog. They stay in hiding until weeks like this). The weather looks very cold for the eastern half of the nation, and the 12Z GFS continues the idea of a winter storm threat for North Alabama late Monday night or Tuesday. We will be much more specific on this by mid-week… let’s get the storm event out of here tomorrow night. We like to take them one at a time, you know.

INTO THE LAND OF VOODOO: After next week’s Arctic shot, we should see moderating temperatures by the last week of the month as the NAO flips positive.

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I will have the next Weather Xtreme video posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….

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