Harvey Takes Center Stage Of The Midday Nowcast

Central Alabama’s weather as we approach the midday hour is actually really nice at the 11:00 AM hour. For the northern half of the area, skies are absolutely clear at this point, with only a few clouds in the southern half. We have a nice drier airmass over the northern half of the state that is giving us slightly cooler temperatures and lower dewpoint values. Birmingham is currently at 81 degrees with a dewpoint of 61… now that is comfortable for the “Dog Days of Summer.”

For The Rest Of Today
Mostly clear to sunny skies and dry conditions can be expected across Central Alabama throughout the remainder of the day and into the early evening hours. Lower dewpoints will make today’s highs in the mid-80s to the lower 90s feel more bearable. For tonight, those mostly clear skies will continue through the late night hours up until the pre-dawn hours of Friday, with the overnight lows reaching the lower 60s to the lower 70s… a quite refreshing night for late August.

Friday’s Weather
A near repeat of today’s weather… we can expect partly cloudy to mostly clear skies across Central Alabama, but there will be a very slight risk of an isolated afternoon shower in the extreme southeastern part of the area. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 80s to the lower 90s.

The Central Alabama Weekend
Moisture levels will begin to rise across Central Alabama, and this will allow for the risk of some widely scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms, but most of area will remain dry throughout the weekend. We’ll have a mix of sun and clouds each day and highs will be in the mid to upper 80s.

Next Week
We’ll have to see what Harvey does once it makes landfall. The general consensus of the models keep Harvey west of Central Alabama through Thursday, with our rainfall chances really starting to ramp up on Wednesday and into Thursday. As with any tropical system, we may have the potential for those surprise smaller spin-up tornadoes, especially since we will be in the east side of Harvey as it approaches.

Tropical Storm Harvey
The main story is Tropical Storm Harvey, who has shown incredible strengthening within the last 10 hours. As of the latest advisory (10:00 AM CDT), the maximum sustained winds have increased to 65 MPH. The more impressive details with Harvey is that the pressure has dropped from 1002mb to 982mb in that 10-hour span, averaging a 2mb drop per hour. Unfortunately, the latest thoughts from the National Hurricane Center have Harvey becoming a Category 3 Hurricane before making landfall, which that would be maximum sustained winds of 111-129 MPH. If this holds true, it will be the first landfalling major hurricane to hit the United States since Wilma in 2005.

Rain accumulations of 12 to 20 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 30 inches can be expected over the middle and upper Texas coast through Wednesday, with 5 to 12 inches falling in far south Texas and the Texas Hill Country to central Louisiana. Totals up to 5 inches can be expected for other parts of Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley. Life-threatening flooding could become a major issue.

Storm surge is expected to reach up to 10 feet if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide, with the deepest water along the immediate coast near and to the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Invest 92L
A disturbance over South Florida will move into the Atlantic early next week, and has some potential to develop into Tropical Storm Irma off the East Coast of the U.S. No issues for Central Alabama from this one.

Got Beach Plans?
Be sure to keep up to date with the detailed forecasts from Fort Morgan over to Panama City Beach, especially with Harvey out in the Gulf. We can expect the conditions to deteriorate as we approach the weekend. Click here to see the AlabamaWx Beach Forecast Center page.

The Beach Forecast is partially underwritten by the support of Brett/Robinson Vacation Rentals in Gulf Shores and Orange Beach. Click here to see Brett/Robinson’s Hot Deals now!

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On This Day In Weather History
1992 – Hurricane Andrew, one of only three category five hurricanes on record to strike the U.S., moved into South Florida. It was the costliest hurricane to make landfall anywhere in the United States until it was surpassed by Katrina in 2005. Andrew caused major damage in the Bahamas and Louisiana, but the greatest impact was felt in South Florida, with sustained wind speeds as high as 165 MPH. Passing directly through the city of Homestead in Dade County, it stripped many homes of all but their concrete foundations. In total, it destroyed more than 63,500 houses, damaged more than 101,000 others, caused $26.5 billion in damages, and left 65 people dead.

WeatherBrains
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Tags: ANC, midday

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS