Saturday Afternoon Notes On Irma
I am writing this from Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa where weather is no issue today…
IRMA RIGHT NOW: At 200 PM EDT, the eye of Hurricane Irma was located by radar near latitude 23.1 North, longitude 80.2 West. Irma is moving just north of due west along the north coast of Cuba at near 9 mph (15 km/h).
A northwest motion is expected to begin later today with a turn toward the north-northwest on Sunday. On the forecast track, the core of Irma will continue to move near or over the north coast of Cuba this afternoon, and will reach the Florida Keys Sunday morning. The hurricane is expected to move along or near the southwest coast of Florida Sunday afternoon.
Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph with higher gusts. Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Irma is forecast to restrengthen once it moves away from Cuba, and Irma is expected to remain a powerful hurricane as it approaches Florida. A NOAA plane is airborne en route to investigate Irma.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles. The estimated minimum central pressure is 941 mb (27.79 inches).
IMPACTS FOR THE SOUTHEAST U.S…
FLORIDA PENINSULA: Now, the greatest storm surge and wind damage will come Sunday and Sunday night over the Florida West Coast (Naples to Fort Myers to Sarasota to Tampa/St. Petersburg). Here is part of the statement from NWS Tampa…
– CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Extreme
– The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
– Emergency plans should include a reasonable threat for
major hurricane force wind greater than 110 mph of
equivalent Category 3 intensity or higher.
– To be safe, aggressively prepare for the potential of
devastating to catastrophic wind impacts. Remaining efforts
to secure properties should now be brought to completion.
– Extremely dangerous and life-threatening wind is possible.
Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury,
loss of life, or immense human suffering. Move to safe
shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.
– POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Devastating to Catastrophic
– Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete
roof and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile
homes. Damage greatly accentuated by large airborne
projectiles. Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks or
months.
– Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences
and roadway signs blown over.
– Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within
urban or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways,
and access routes impassable.
– Widespread power and communications outages.
It is important to stress that hurricane force winds will be possible over ALL of the Florida Peninsula (not the Panhandle) Sunday and Sunday night. In addition to wind and storm surge damage, a few tornadoes will be possible. A number of tornado warnings have already been issued for South Florida this afternoon.
While the impact over the Atlantic coast won’t be as severe, storm surge/wind damage is likely. Orlando will experience hurricane force winds late Sunday and Sunday night.
This is a very serious, life threatening storm. Evacuation orders MUST be followed. It is a matter of life and death for many.
Get specific impact statements from these Florida NWS offices…
FLORIDA PANHANDLE: Rain, if any, will be rather light for Pensacola, Navarre Beach, and Destin. It will be windy, of course, with a gusty north wind of 20-35 mph tomorrow through Monday. This is a dry, offshore flow.
At Panama City, they will most likely get into the outer rain shield of Irma Monday with north winds of 40-45 mph. They will remain on the “good” west side of the circulation, meaning an offshore flow and no storm surge issues. But, the sustained wind could knock down a few trees and bring scattered power outages.
Winds will be higher east of Panama City… Port St. Joe, Apalachicola, Cape San Blas will have winds of 40-55 mph Monday. A tropical storm watch has been issued for this region; tropical storm force winds begin at 39 mph. Again, winds here will be out of the north and there will be no storm surge issues with an offshore flow.
ALABAMA GULF COAST: No rain for Dauphin Island, Gulf Shores, or Orange Beach. Monday will be windy with a north wind of 15-30 mph. Again, a dry, offshore flow.
The weather for the rest of next week (after Monday) on the Central Gulf Coast will be delightful with ample sunshine each day.
ALABAMA: We will be on the “good” west side of Irma, and there is no tornado risk anywhere in the state. The tornado threat is well to the east on the “bad” east side of the circulation over eastern Georgia and the Carolinas.
But understand it becomes windy Monday, Monday night, and Tuesday. Highest wind will be over the eastern third of the state.
As you can see from the above graphic from NWS Birmingham, the eastern half of the state will have potential for winds of 25-40 mph, with higher gusts. Winds could gust to 55 mph near the Georgia border, and across higher terrain (like Mt Cheaha). This is enough wind for some scattered tree and power line damage over the eastern hole of the state Monday night into Tuesday morning.
Rain amounts across East Alabama should be in the 1-3 inch range. Isolated totals nearing 4 inches along the Alabama/Georgia line.
Winds across West Alabama will be lighter, in the 15-25 mph range. with rain amounts generally of one inch or less. No rain at all is expected in the broad area from Demopolis to Mobile, across Southwest Alabama.
GEORGIA: The circulation center of Irma will come up through Georgia; winds will average 35-45 mph during Monday night and Tuesday morning with potential for gusts to 50 mph (this includes the Atlanta metro). This will bring potential for downed trees and power outages. Rain amounts of 2-4 inches are likely, with isolated amounts to 5 inches.
REMEMBER: You need to be working with current information. Using products that are over six hours old means you are using bad information. We will have frequent updates on the blog for the duration of this event…
Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Tropical
About the Author (Author Profile)
James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.Subscribe
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