Pressures Dropping in Irma, Winds Not Catching Up…Yet

The NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane in Hurricane Irma is finding that pressures continue to drop. The central pressure in the storm has dropped from 941 mb earlier this afternoon.

The winds are still not catching up to the pressure. The surface winds were measured at 106 mph on this last pass, up from the 94 mph measured two passes ago. Flight level winds are up to 119 mph.

The hurricane has concentric eyewalls. The winds may not begin to increase until the inner eyewall disintegrates and the outer eyewall begins to contract. With warm water and low shear, steady to rapid intensification is possible. This is not good for places along the West Coast of Florida as well as the Florida Keys.

The center is clearly visible on the Key West radar, located 109 miles SE of the city. The movement is still westerly. Hopefully, the expected turn will not occur until the hurricane has gained the longitude of Key West and the worst might miss Key West. Not forecasting that, but keeping fingers crossed.

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