A Mild Afternoon Ahead

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RIGHT NOW: What a great example of how this not a “one number” place when you are forecasting highs and lows. At 5:00, Birmingham is reporting 48 degrees, while Gadsden is 21 degrees colder at 27! We have a cold pocket over East Alabama, where radiational cooling is responsible for a light freeze; elsewhere a south wind is keeping temperatures considerably warmer.

Everyone warms into the 60s today with a partly sunny sky; it will be one of our warmest days so far in 2009, and nobody is griping about that. Clouds will increase tonight in advance of a surface front.

SOME RAIN TOMORROW: That front will bring a few periods of light rain tomorrow, maybe beginning during the pre-dawn hours, but it won’t rain too much. The NAM is the most aggressive with the rain; printing 0.42″ for Birmingham. The GFS is drier with 0.32″. Moisture will be very limited, so I figure amounts will be around one-quarter of an inch. Seems like the main window for rain will be from about 1:00 a.m until 1:00 p.m. Tomorrow will also be cooler with a high in the low 50s with clouds some some light rain.

Sunday still looks cool and dry with a high in the low 50s; clouds will linger much of the day, although the sun could peek out at times.

NEXT WEEK: Somewhat of a tough call in terms of the chance of rain; seems like the best chance of showers will be a little north of here Monday through Wednesday, but I guess a shower or two is possible as far south of I-20 along the way. Afternoon highs should warm into the low 60s by Wednesday. A cold front will bring a good chance of rain during the latter part of the week; the 06Z GFS shows the best chance coming Thursday afternoon and Thursday night.

THE LAND OF VOODOO: The GFS still hints at a good rain event in the February 2-3 time frame, and with the NAO going negative, and very cold air building again over the northern part of the continent, I figure we will see at least one of two Arctic shots next month.

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Another busy day… I will be speaking to the kids at Trinity Methodist Pre-School in Homewood this morning, and then I see the first graders at Brookwood Forest Elementary in Mountain Brook this afternoon. Due to the school schedule and some meetings, I doubt if I will be able to produce an afternoon Weather Xtreme video today, but I will have some forecast notes here by 3:30. Enjoy the day!

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