Dart Board Weather Model

I call it forecasting using a dart board.

It almost gets down to that at times, such as yesterday afternoon’s forecast for low this morning. We knew it would be that way.

In yesterday afternoon’s edition, I used 39 as the unhappy medium knowing that warming trend southerly winds would set in earlier over on the west side of the state. We also knew that the cold air would get trapped in the east and NE Alabama valleys would not get “scooped out” until today.

See what I mean using the lows this morning?

* 28 Anniston Airport, 42 Mt. Cheaha (14 degrees warmer!)
* 45 Birmingham Airport, 32 Pinson (about 7 miles apart)
* 35 Argo, 45 Birmingham Airport (both NE Jefferson County)
* 37 Coker, 45 Tuscaloosa Airport (only 5 miles apart)
* 25 Muscadine, 41 Gadsden Skycam
* 48 Weaver, 35 at US 431 and hgy 204
* 28 Fort Payne Airport, 43 Cullman Airport
* 33 Montgomery/Dannelly Field, 45 Tuscaloosa

So, the forecast low was six degrees too low for Birmingham and Tuscaloosa and 11 degrees too high for Anniston.

This is another reason why topography is another key ingredient in weather forecasting and not addressed by conventional weather models!

Just another challenge in weather forecasting and I would not want it to be any other way. I enjoy that challenge and I never take any thing for granted.

It can trigger a few gray hairs

…or some hairs missing in action

…Woe is we…

…But life goes on…

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