Thursday Still Looking Wet/Stormy

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All eyes are on the major spring storm system coming out of the Rockies this afternoon. Tornado watches blanked the southern plains ahead of the dry line, and severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes are likely all the way from Central Texas northward into Kansas and the western third of Missouri for the rest of this afternoon and tonight. SPC continues a moderate risk of severe storms for this region.

Around here, the radar is quiet, and the sky has become partly sunny. This will push temperatures up into the low to mid 80s this afternoon. A few additional showers could form during the afternoon heating, but the best chance of those will be along and north of U.S. 278, or north of a line from Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden.

Tomorrow at this point looks dry and warm, with a mix of sun and clouds and afternoon temperatures well up in the 80s again. To the west, SPC continues a slight risk of severe weather for all of Mississippi, Arkansas, and Louisiana, and some of those storms could enter West Alabama late tomorrow night.

THURSDAY: Most of Alabama is in a slight risk of severe weather for Thursday as a negatively tilted upper trough moves through the region with a decent amount of instability. Wind fields are decent, but not extremely strong. The 12Z NAM continues to be aggressive with the rain; it shows 1.28″ for Birmingham during the next 84 hours, with most of that falling during the day Thursday. The QPF graphic from HPC suggests amounts here will be anywhere from 1/2 to 1 inch, with amounts over one inch for the Tennessee Valley. Showers and storms will be possible at any time Thursday, but the main window for the stronger storms will come from about 11:00 a.m. until 5:00 p.m.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: The GFS continues to struggle with the trailing impulse coming through here over the weekend. The latest run in the house (the 12Z run) shows the vorticity maximum bringing the chance of a few showers to North Alabama Saturday afternoon and Saturday night, with no rain on Friday or Sunday. I guess the time has come to insert the chance of a shower Saturday afternoon into the nighttime hours, but I think rainfall amounts will be light and spotty, and some spots will have no rain at all. It should be not a big problem for outdoor activities, but just be aware that the chance is there.

For now Sunday looks like a great day for the running of the Aaron’s 499 at the Talladega Superspeedway, with a high in the 78 to 81 degree range with a good supply of sunshine.

LONG RANGE: The 12Z GFS shows a chance of rain around May 3, and then again May 7, but model consistency has been poor lately and I would not trust any specific solution out in voodoo land right now.

WEATHER BRAINS: I listened to this week’s WeatherBrains while driving down to Tuscaloosa this morning… a great show, especially because I wasn’t on it! I was at my son’s baseball game last night when it was taped. Be sure and check it out on the web, or listen via iTunes. WeatherBrains is our weekly 30 minute netcast.

CLIMATE BRAINS: Our new open forum on climate change is up and running, and the debate is underway. You know how I feel, now we want to know how YOU feel! Access and read the forum here.

WEATHER PARTY: Get all the latest weather news over on our sister site, WeatherParty.com. Be sure and register while you are there; you can submit stories and vote on them to determine what is published on the front page.

I sure enjoyed being back at Verner Elementary in Tuscaloosa this morning; be looking for the third graders on the KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! We will keep you posted on developments here on the blog this afternoon and tonight… my next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!

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