An Upgrade To Moderate Risk Coming At Next SPC Day 1 Outlook Update
Mesoscale Discussion 0143
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0952 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018
Areas affected…north-central and northern AL…northwest GA…far southern middle TN
Concerning…Outlook upgrade
Valid 191452Z – 191615Z
SUMMARY…An upgrade to a Moderate Risk categorical outlook (driven by a 15% significant tornado risk) is planned for the 1630Z outlook.
DISCUSSION…It appears increasingly probable the risk for several tornadic supercells will traverse across northern portions of mid-afternoon afternoon and through the early evening. Thunderstorm activity will be largely void across a large part of this area (north-central AL) prior to peak heating and a moderately unstable airmass is expected to develop by mid afternoon. The arrival of a speed max in the mid-levels will correspondingly lead to a marked strengthening in low-level flow and increasing hodograph size, which will be more favorable for supercells and low-level mesocyclones. Given these factors, confidence has increased such that a 15% significant tornado risk and the potential for longer lived supercells and damaging tornadoes will focus across north-central and northern AL, far southern middle TN beginning during the late afternoon/early evening, then moving east into northeast AL and far northwest GA later this evening.
Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS
About the Author (Author Profile)
Scott Martin is an operational meteorologist, professional graphic artist, musician, husband, and father. Not only is Scott a member of the National Weather Association, but he is also the Central Alabama Chapter of the NWA president. Scott is also the co-founder of Racecast Weather, which provides forecasts for many racing series across the USA. He also supplies forecasts for the BassMaster Elite Series events including the BassMaster Classic.Subscribe
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