A New Tornado Watch Likely To The South Of The Area

Latest Mesoscale Discussion from the Storm Prediction Center

Areas affected…Far Southeastern MS…Southern AL and the Far Western FL Panhandle

Concerning…Severe potential…Tornado Watch likely

Probability of Watch Issuance…95 percent

SUMMARY… The threat for damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two will continue across portions of far southern MS and far southern AL with some extension possible into the western FL Panhandle later tonight.

DISCUSSION… Heavy precipitation across western portions of the discussion area (far southeastern MS and adjacent southern AL) has moved little over the past hour as the northern portions of the convective line continues to accelerate eastward while the southern portion moves significantly slower. Given the inflection in the convective line and abundant precipitation, the development of a meso low appears likely to be ongoing near the far southern AL/MS border. Moisture convergence is also maximized in this region, further strengthening the expectation of meso low development.

At the same time, the southern portion of the convective line is expected to begin accelerating eastward as a shortwave trough approaches from the west. Some of this acceleration appears to be beginning now. This should allow the line to remain co-located with its outflow, increasing updraft strength and the potential for damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. Additionally, increasing low-level shear from both the meso low and larger scale strengthening of 2-3 km AGL winds will augment the severe threat. A watch will likely be needed to cover this lingering threat.

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