SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Watch Possible

SUMMARY…A small thunderstorm complex with some damaging wind potential will continue east across the region through early afternoon. A watch could be considered, if convective trends warrant.

DISCUSSION…A localized convective system, likely enhanced by an MCV and focused confluence/ascent, is moving east across southern TN and northern AL around 35-45 mph this morning. 12Z regional soundings sampled unimpressive mid-level lapse rates, and continued precipitation to the south is limiting insolation ahead of this line. Furthermore, KCRX in northeast MS did not register a strong surface gust with passage of the line. Still, some filtered sunlight (with a modest enhancement of low-level lapse rates) and around 35-45 kt of 850-500mb flow may support enough downward momentum transport for a few damaging gusts through early afternoon, and a watch may be considered if organizational trends warrant.

Tags: MesoScaleDiscussion

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