Showers By The Weekend

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below, and on iTunes…

Be sure and scroll down and see the pictures of the Cahaba Lillies in bloom; that is a sure sign summer is just about here.

A quick peek at climate data shows the rain deficiency for Birmingham now at 12.36 inches and growing. The good news is that scattered showers and storms will return to Alabama in the not too distant future, but the bad news is that they will come over the weekend.

Today and tomorrow will be warm and dry with highs in the mid 80s and increasing humidity levels. By Friday, a few afternoon showers could show up, but the latest GFS suggests the best chance of them on Friday will come north of Birmingham. Then, scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Saturday, Sunday, and well into next week as a pool of very deep moisture sets up across Alabama. The problem is that there isn’t a big trigger for rain, but a weak surface front is expected to be near the Tennessee border on Saturday, which will aid in the development of showers.

The GFS actually moves that boundary down to Cullman on Sunday, and puts the Tennessee Valley in dry air, but for the I-20/59 corridor we will maintain the risk of scattered showers and storms through the entire weekend. The chance of any one spot getting wet both days is about one in three, and the QPF suggests some Alabama communities might see one inch of rain. Of course, rainfall distribution will be very uneven. In between the showers we will have intervals of sunshine, and highs over the weekend should be in the low to mid 80s.

NEXT WEEK: The surface boundary dissipates Sunday night, and a soupy, muggy airmass will hang over Alabama for much of the week, meaning the chance of scattered, mainly afternoon showers and storms on a daily basis. This isn’t the widespread rain we really need, but it sure beats nothing.

LONG RANGE: The 00Z GFS has backed off on the idea of a long wave trough impacting Alabama in the May 18-19 time frame, but that is only one run and it might show up again later. Also, the 00Z GFS shows a nice long wave trough over the eastern U.S. May 23, which would drive a nice cold front down here with numerous showers and storms. But, as we all know, that is pure voodoo at this point.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather hosted by David Black and featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. This week’s show is a really good one; lots of great interviews from NWS folks and storm chasers involved with the Kansas tornado outbreak this past weekend.

WEATHER PARTY: Get all the latest weather news over on our sister site, WeatherParty.com. Be sure and register while you are there; you can submit stories and vote on them to determine what is published on the front page.

Back on the road today; I will be up in Marion County speaking to the kids at Brilliant Elementary School. I will be back in the office by early afternoon and will have the afternoon Weather Xtreme video loaded by 3:30!

Category: Uncategorized