Another Tornado Threat Tomorrow

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While we are in a quiet period today with a clearing sky, the attention will be focused on tomorrow…

MODERATE RISK: Scroll down and you can see Dr. Coleman’s discussion… and be sure and watch the Weather Xtreme video. SPC has put most of Alabama in a moderate risk for severe weather tomorrow. A deepening surface low will run from near Texarkana to Paducah, and with excellent upper support, high instability, and strong helicity values, the stage is set for a significant outbreak of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. EHI values rise to 3.0 over West Alabama tomorrow afternoon, and this time the GFS shows the convection down to the south displaced to the east, unlike this past Saturday when it interfered with the inflow of unstable air into North Alabama.

TIMING: The main 12 hour window will be from 12:00 noon until 12:00 midnight; initially the threat will be over West Alabama, spreading east during the mid to late afternoon. Initially, the concern will be over discrete supercell storms that form; those will have the potential to produce damaging straight line winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes. SPC is concerned over the possibility of a few damaging, long track tornadoes as well. All of the activity will evolve into a long squall line tomorrow night, which should be into Georgia by midnight.

When it comes to thunderstorms, expect the unexpected. Nobody knows how the whole thing will play out, but the evidence is strong, and we recommend that everyone be close to a source of watches and warnings tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night. And, once again, today is a good time to review your severe weather safety plan at home and at work.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Clearing and cooler weather will follow the storms on Friday, and Saturday promises to be a delightful spring day with a sunny sky and a high well into the 70s. Then, yet another strong to severe storm event is shaping up for Sunday; SPC has all of Alabama in a severe weather risk.

NEXT WEEK: Monday will be sharply cooler with a high in the 50s; we will have to watch for some scattered light frost by Tuesday morning. Then, yet another setup for strong storms is ahead for Thursday (April 9).

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. Brian will post the show notes for this week’s new episode shortly.

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This morning I am doing a weather program at Oakman Elementary School… their building was destroyed by a tornado back in December of 2008. I know they will be a great audience… the next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 3:30 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

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