SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Watch Possible

SUMMARY…Storms should gradually increase in coverage/intensity late this evening into the overnight across southern AL and possibly into the western FL Panhandle. While uncertainty exists regarding the overall extent and magnitude of this late-night severe risk, trends are being monitored for a possible Watch.

DISCUSSION…Thunderstorms have recently increased across southwest AL late this evening as of around 320Z. While overall forcing for ascent is relatively subtle, factors such as weak height falls and a warm conveyor/elevated moisture transport should contribute to increasing storms over the next couple of hours. This notion is well supported by recent HRRR runs and various 00Z-based convection-allowing models. The environment is conducive for at least isolated severe storms including a couple of supercells in the presence of moderate instability and around 40 kt of effective shear. Large hail and locally damaging winds will be possible with the strongest storms. Developmental trends are being monitored for a possible Watch.

Tags: MesoScaleDiscussion

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