SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Watch Unlikely

| July 31, 2018 @ 12:51 pm

SUMMARY…Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over parts of Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia. A few of the stronger cells will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts. Poor convective organization suggests a watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION…Latest visible imagery shows a zone of full sunshine and rapid heating from east-central MS, across central AL, into northwest GA. Temperatures in this zone have warmed to near 90F with steep low-level lapse rates developing. Ample low-level moisture, coupled with the heating, is resulting in moderate MLCAPE values of over 2000 J/kg and little cap. Given recent trends in the cumulus field over this region, scattered thunderstorm development is likely in the next 1-2 hours. Wind fields near the surface are weak, but 20-30 knot flow above 3km AGL may be sufficient for the strongest cells to transfer momentum downward, given the steep low-level lapse rates. Gusty and locally damaging wind gusts are expected in the strongest cores. Due to the disorganized nature of the convection, a watch is not expected at this time.

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