Florence Weakens To A Depression But Flash Flooding And Major River Flooding Will Continue Over Carolinas

| September 16, 2018 @ 3:45 am

FloatGraphic
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…33.8N 81.4W
ABOUT 20 MI…35 KM SW OF COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1000 MB…29.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning from South Santee River South Carolina to
Surf City North Carolina is discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states should monitor
the progress of Florence due to the heavy rainfall threat.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Florence
was located near latitude 33.8 North, longitude 81.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected
today, followed by a turn toward the north and northeast with an
additional increase in forward speed on Monday. On the forecast
track, Florence’s center will move across the western Carolinas
today and then recurve over the Ohio Valley and Northeast U.S.
Monday and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Continued gradual weakening is forecast during the
next couple of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas…

Central and western North Carolina into far southwest Virginia…

An additional 5 to 10 inches, with storm total accumulations of 15
to 20 inches in western North Carolina. These rainfall amounts will
produce catastrophic flash flooding, prolonged significant river
flooding, and an elevated risk for landslides in western North
Carolina and far southwest Virginia.

Southern North Carolina into Northern South Carolina…

An additional 4 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches. This rainfall will
result in additional flash flooding while also exacerbating the
river flooding. Storm total accumulations of 30 to 40 inches in
southeast North Carolina.

West-central Virginia, north of Roanoke and west of
Charlottesville…

2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. This rainfall will result in
flash flooding and potentially lead to some river flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes remain possible across North Carolina
and eastern South Carolina today and tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on
Florence. Future information on Florence can be found in Public
Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 11
AM EDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and on
the web at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

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