SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Watch Unlikely
SUMMARY…A few stronger/organized storms could develop over middle Tennessee and northern Alabama through this evening. Overall, the severe threat will remain isolated if it materializes.
DISCUSSION…A shortwave trough is moving over the Southeast and Ohio River Valley helping to spread ascent over the region. Within the warm sector including across Mississippi, Alabama, and most of Tennessee, a moist/unstable airmass is present and supportive of developing convection. MLCAPE of 750-1500 J/kg over middle Tennessee/northern Alabama with effective SRH of 75-150 and bulk shear of 25-30 knots per mesoanalysis/RAP soundings indicate the potential for a few weakly rotating storms. BNA radar has depicted a few storms with broad/weak rotation in the last hour across portions of middle Tennessee. A few stronger/organized storms are possible, but the overall severe threat remains marginal at best, thus a watch issuance is not expected.
Category: ALL POSTS, MescoScale Discussions
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