A Late Evening Look at Tropical Storm Michael

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane left Keesler AFB in Biloxi shortly after 9 p.m. tonight enroute to investigate Tropical Storm Michael in the western Caribbean.

The new advisory on Michael is out.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…20.0N 85.4W
ABOUT 105 MI…165 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 135 MI…215 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 5 DEGREES AT 5 MPH…7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…997 MB…29.44 INCHES

The center was actually further east than originally thought, and this has shifted the official forecast ever so slightly to the east.

Most of the forecast models bring the center onshore Wednesday between Fort Walton and Panama City.

The new GFS is not out far enough to see landfall yet. The afternoon operational run brought the center to near Destin a little after noon on Wednesday as a 952 millibar hurricane with top winds around 95-100 mph.

The Euro run from this morning continued to be slower, resulting in landfall near St. George Island, south of Apalachicola on Thursday morning as a 950 mb hurricane, top winds of 100 mph.

The new NAM is in and it appears to be out to lunch, weakening the storm over the Gulf.

The HWRF and HMON make Michael a category three hurricane before landfall, which is possible, but most of the other intensity models are split between category two and category one.

With warm sea surface temperatures between 28-29C, it seems reasonable that steady strengthening is likely, bringing Michael ashore as a 950 mb hurricane with top winds around 100-115 mph.

Impacts will begin along the Gulf Coast as early as Tuesday afternoon and evening. Here are the most likely times for the onset of tropical storm force winds, which is when all preparations should be complete:

The earliest reasonable time is around dark Tuesday evening, so preparations should be complete by that time.

We will know more by morning, so check in early with the latest from AlabamaWX.

Category: ALL POSTS, Tropical