Change to Stormy

The latest edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

After several wonderful spring days, clouds have increased rapidly across the western half of Alabama and will have increased across the whole state by late morning. Nice temperature contrast this morning, too, with around 50 from Birmingham to Tuscaloosa but around 40 in the eastern counties.

The main feature will be a strong low moving out of the Rockies that will bring the best chances for storms, some strong to severe, to the area on Sunday afternoon. In the meantime, a warm front moving northward with strong southerly flow will be moistening up the atmosphere. Rain is already occurring in eastern Mississippi with some light rain amounts possible in the western sections of the state – generally west of I-65 – today. Overnight as the main system gets closer, thunderstorm chances will be on the increase.

There are some timing differences with the various models and the GFS may be a tad fast. It would seem likely that the front will arrive in the afternoon Sunday coincident with our best chances for thunderstorms and severe weather. The CAPE values have continued to drop and are now showing below 1000 as the LI’s are down, too. Several parameters such as the low level jet, good hodographs, time of day of the frontal passage, and a surface low in the vicinity of Paducah, KY, all appear favorable but increased clouds and the rain coverage today and tonight may help to dampen the severe risk somewhat. As is nearly always the case, the details will rest in the smaller scale, so this system will bear watching.

Sunday night and Monday, the surface low moves northeast taking the front to the Atlantic coast. It looks like wraparound moisture will keep us cloudy Monday and perhaps part of Tuesday but we should be dry. The trough sharpens considerably so we should remain cooler than average through Wednesday when we should begin warming up again as high pressure at the surface and aloft keep the latter part of the week dry.

Next weekend looks like it may be dry, too, as the ridge builds in strongly over the Southeast. That is also the trend into voodoo country with the possibility of a strong upper air impulse as May gets started. But there is lots of time for changes that far out.

Don’t forget to listen to our weekly netcast anytime on the web or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.

And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. And, my personal Twitter feed is here if you want to keep up with the adventures and mis-adventures in my life. Twitter is a short messaging service you can receive via the web, cell phone, or IM.

Thanks for tuning into the Weather Xtreme Video. I plan to get the next one posted first thing Sunday morning – by 8 am. I hope you have a great Saturday. Enjoy the day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

Category: Uncategorized