SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Tornado Watch 435…

SUMMARY…Threat for locally damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two continues.

DISCUSSION…Widespread convection is ongoing across WW 435 as of 03Z, though thus far storms have remained generally disorganized. The environment remains favorable for rotating updrafts, especially across southeast AL into the FL Panhandle, where MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg and effective shear of 45-60 kt remains in place. Training of cells and a tendency for new development to quickly move north of the effective surface boundary has limited the opportunity for storms to mature, though at least transient storm rotation remains possible, accompanied by a threat for locally damaging wind and/or a brief tornado or two. With time, the bulk of the convection may eventually move toward the eastern edge of the watch as the primary low-level jet shifts northeastward, though some redevelopment will remain possible along the surface boundary into southeast AL and the FL Panhandle. There is some potential for modest destabilization across southern GA as the effective boundary tries to move northward, which would increase the severe potential somewhat across that part of the watch compared to what is currently observed. The ongoing long-duration, low-magnitude severe threat may continue into the overnight hours. However, it is possible that the watch will be canceled early if there is no increase in convective organization over the next hour or so, with the understanding that locally damaging wind or perhaps a brief tornado cannot be ruled out through the remainder of the night.

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