SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Watch Unlikely

SUMMARY…Several weak supercells will approach the barrier islands south of Mobile Bay and near the FL/AL border. Cool/stable conditions in the low levels will limit the brief/weak tornado risk.

DISCUSSION…Recent surface analysis places a warm front roughly 40 nm south of AL barrier islands. Conditions south of the warm front are hospitable to weak surface-based CAPE (200-500 J/kg) whereas north of the boundary SBCAPE is nil. The KMOB VAD shows a strongly veering wind profile supporting storm rotation. Several updrafts in the shelf waters south of the AL coast have acquired supercell rotation during the past 1-2 hours. The warm front is forecast to very slowly advance north during the evening and approach the coast. As a result, a couple of weak mesocyclones may move towards or affect the immediate coast. However, given the poor low-level lapse rates acting as a limiting factor, it seems unlikely a brief/weak tornado would move onshore. The immediate coastal areas of AL and the western FL Panhandle will continue to be monitored.

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