SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Tornado Watch 449…

SUMMARY…Local severe risk — including the potential for a brief tornado or two — continues across the watch area.

DISCUSSION…Latest radar loop shows a band of storms moving across the Mid South and central Gulf Coast states, with the stronger/more organized portion of the band to the north, and increasingly disorganized/weaker storms farther south. This stronger portion of the band, crossing Middle Tennessee, far northwest Alabama, and northeast Mississippi, is a fairly organized QLCS, though it remains low-topped to the degree that little lightning is being observed. Still, with strong shear in place across the region (flow increasing with height to in excess of 50kt between .5km and 1km AGL, and to near 100kt at mid levels), risk for locally damaging wind gusts, and a brief tornado or two, will continue as convection continues moving quickly eastward across the area. As storms advance farther eastward, toward eastern Tennessee and northeast Alabama over the next couple of hours, indications of even more limited instability with eastward extent suggest that an additional watch, to the east of Tornado Watch 449 — may not be required.

Tags: MesoScaleDiscussion

Category: ALL POSTS, MescoScale Discussions