SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Watch Unlikely

| January 4, 2019 @ 5:06 am

SUMMARY…Isolated damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado are possible as the convective line continues eastward into southeast GA and the central FL Peninsula.

DISCUSSION…Shallow convective line continues to push eastward across far southeast AL and the western/central FL Panhandle. Despite a general increase in updraft strength and echo tops, the line has remained devoid of any lightning onshore. Air mass ahead of the line has modified slightly, with dewpoints now in the 70s across the central FL Panhandle and mid 60s dewpoints as far north as ABY in far southwest GA. This has lead to a modest increase in instability with MLCAPE now estimated near 500 J/kg. Instability quickly drops off near the FL Big Bend where warm temperatures aloft remain in place and cooler low-level trajectories exist. Surface winds have backed ahead of the line and recent TLH VAD data suggests 0-1 km SRH over 250 m2/s2 and 0-1 km shear near 30 kt. This favorable low-level shear coupled with sufficient instability supports the potential for mesovortices embedded in the convective line, particularly where deeper, more persistent updrafts exist. As such, isolated damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado are possible. Marginal nature of the threat and low probability of occurrence will preclude the need for a watch.


Category: ALL POSTS, MescoScale Discussions

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