Severe Storms Possible Late Saturday/Saturday Night

RADAR CHECK: The most widespread rain at mid-afternoon is over Northwest Alabama; a number of aerial flood warnings and advisories have been issued there. Showers are more scattered in nature over the rest of the state. There is a huge thermal contrast… at mid-afternoon Montgomery soared to 81 degrees south of a warm front, but to the north Haleyville was 36 degrees colder at 45.

Occasional showers and a few thunderstorms will continue through tomorrow across the state, with the most widespread rain over the Tennessee Valley. We note WPC has put far North Alabama in a “high risk” of flooding tomorrow, with additional rain amounts of 3-4 inches expected over the next 36 hours.

Tomorrow will be warmer with a high in the 70s for most of the state; a few spots across South Alabama will reach the low 80s again.

SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT: Saturday will be a warm and windy day with scattered showers possible; tempearures will rise into the mid 70s, maybe even upper 70s in spots by afternoon. Scattered showers are possible during the day, but an approaching cold front supported by a strong upper trough will bring the risk of severe storms to the state by late afternoon and into Saturday night.

SPC has defined an “enhanced risk” (level 3/5) for the northwest tip of the state, with the standard “slight risk” (level 2/5) down to Linden, Calera, Talladega, and Centre. A “marginal risk” (level 1/5) extends as far south as Mobile, Montgomery, and Roanoke.

TIMING: The main window for severe storms in Alabama will come from roughly 4:00 p.m. until midnight. Initially the threat will be over the northwest part of the state, then shifting southward during the night. Storms should weaken to below severe limits after midnight as they move into the southeast part of the state.

THREATS: The core threat will come from damaging straight line winds within the squall line ahead of the front, but hail and a few isolated tornadoes are possible as well. We should also mention that strong pressure gradient winds out of the south averaging 12-25 with higher gusts could bring down a few trees thanks to the very soggy ground soil.

FLOODING: With the ground totally saturated, understand that any additional rain could produce some flooding issues across the northern half of the state.

Be sure you have a way of hearing severe weather watches and warnings this weekend.

Drier air returns to the state Sunday with a clearing sky along with a high in the 60s.

NEXT WEEK: The weather stays dry Monday and Tuesday, but rain returns to the state Wednesday. Then, Thursday and Friday look rain-free. Highs next week will be mostly in the 60s… see the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

RAIN STATS: Birmingham has measured 20.67″ of rain since December 1, 8.20″ above average. The city has received measurable rain on 37 of the 83 days since December 1 (45%).

BEACH FORECAST: Click here to see the AlabamaWx Beach Forecast Center page.

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I enjoyed visiting with the third graders at Centre Elementary today… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Tags: ANC, wet

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