SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Watch Unlikely

SUMMARY…A strong storm or two could produce small hail and perhaps some gusty winds through early morning. The overall severe threat will remain limited, and a watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION…Thunderstorms have increased in coverage and intensity over the last hour from the western FL Panhandle into far southeast AL and southwest GA. The most intense cells are currently near the Elgin AFB 88-D. Based on latest mesoanalysis, these storms are likely elevated with weak to moderate inhibition along the coast and well inland. These cells likely will remain elevated, with some increasing chance for surface-based convection after sunrise when heating and some marginally better low level moisture overspread the area. That being said, MLCAPE values ranged from around 500-1000 J/kg across the MCD area with midlevel lapse rates around 7 C/km. Additionally, effective shear around 35-45 kt is evident in both objective analysis and regional 88-D VWP data. As a result, some stronger, sustained updrafts are possible. Given environmental parameters, marginally severe hail could accompany the strongest cells. Should storms become surface-based, a strong wind gust also would be possible. Given the marginal nature of the threat, a watch is not expected at this time.

Tags: MesoScaleDiscussion

Category: ALL POSTS, MescoScale Discussions