SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Watch Possible

SUMMARY…A locally damaging wind threat may develop this morning. Convective trends will be monitored in the short term as to whether a tornado watch will be needed prior to an expected tornado watch issuance time by the 11am-12pm period.

DISCUSSION…Radar imagery shows an intensifying band of thunderstorms over southern MS from near the surface low southwestward along the cold front. The developing band of storms is expected to move eastward near the primary frontal zone extending eastward from the surface low across south-central AL. The maritime warm front near the I-10 corridor is becoming more diffuse with time but the airmass along and south of the front is where appreciable surface-based buoyancy resides. As such, only weak instability is located currently over east-central MS to the east of Jackson. Nonetheless, as additional boundary layer warming/moistening occurs, the combination of a destabilizing boundary layer and the fast eastward motion of the squall line (40-45 kt) may facilitate an increased risk for horizontal momentum transport in the form of strong to locally severe gusts in the next 1-2 hours. If this appears imminent, a tornado watch may be needed sooner than a currently anticipated tornado watch issuance time by 11am-12pm CST.

Tags: MesoScaleDiscussion

Category: ALL POSTS, MescoScale Discussions