SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Tornado Watch 7…

SUMMARY…Risk for damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes continues with the squall line across the MS/AL border.

DISCUSSION…Convection has recently organized into a linear complex, now located roughly along a line from west of Selma, AL to Lake Pontchartrain. As a surface low, now located over central Alabama, continues to track eastwards, the associated squall line will continue to progress east into a moist, modestly unstable airmass (with up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE noted, especially across southern Alabama). Transient supercell structures have recently been noted within the line, with a TDS noted in Washington County, AL around 1850Z. 1848Z MOB VAD profiler data suggests 0-1km SRH over 250 m2/s2, with 400 m2/s2 0-3km SRH in association with an isallobarically driven low-level jet, suggesting tornado potential will continue across this area for the next few hours. In addition, a few damaging wind gusts will also be possible with forward- and rear-flank downdrafts in transient supercell structures, as well as with any bowing segments within the line.

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