SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Tornado Watch 29…

SUMMARY…A couple of severe storms linger across parts of central through east central Alabama, but severe weather potential, in general, is in the process of diminishing. If trends continue as currently anticipated through the next hour or two, it is possible that the remaining valid portions of the watch could be cancelled prior to the scheduled Midnight CDT (1 AM EDT) expiration.

DISCUSSION…Considerable general weakening of discrete pre-frontal thunderstorm activity has been evident for the past hour or so in radar and lightning data. A south-southwesterly 850 mb jet axis lingers as far south as northwestern Georgia into central Alabama, but wind speeds are gradually weakening, and a relatively moist unstable boundary layer along it is gradually becoming less unstable with the loss of daytime heating. There has been some increase in convection to the northwest and west of the region, across the Cumberland Plateau into the lower Mississippi Valley, just ahead of where a corridor of weak to moderate boundary layer instability appears to linger near a remnant dry line. However, potential for substantive further intensification of this activity seems limited, in the presence of neutral to rising mid-level heights in the wake of the cyclone over the Great Lakes region, before the trailing cold front overtakes the dry line/instability axis later this evening.

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