SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Watch Possible

SUMMARY…Convection is forecast to increase in coverage over the next 1-2 hours, with a few stronger cells becoming capable of producing hail, as well as a few locally damaging gusts. A watch may become necessary depending upon convective evolution.

DISCUSSION…Latest surface analysis shows some warming/moistening of the airmass ahead of a surface front advancing across the mid-South/central Gulf Coast states in a segmented manner. Initial storms have developed over parts of Middle Tennessee nearer the upper trough, where cooler air aloft in conjunction with limited heating has yielded a pocket of modest /near 500 J/kg/ mixed-layer CAPE development. Though convergence is generally weak farther south into Alabama and vicinity, modest CAPE should support isolated to scattered storm development south of the initial convection, likely along the cold front — crossing northern Mississippi — and/or a second frontal segment/wind shift crossing northern and central Alabama. Though instability will remain modest and convergence generally weak, westerly flow increasing with height across the region is yielding speed shear sufficient for organized updrafts. As such, a few storms may become capable of producing hail. Gusty/locally damaging winds will also be possible in a few locales — particularly if any upscale growth into line segments can occur through this afternoon/early evening.

Tags: MesoScaleDiscussion

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