A Mid-Afternoon Check On Our Weather Situation

As of 2:50 pm, we do have a few scattered showers showing up on radar mainly over the west and west-central parts of Central Alabama. None of these are showing any lightning at this point, and all of these are really light in nature. We have a good bit of cloud cover over the area but there are a few breaks that are allowing for some sunshine to warm the surface and allow for that instability to build. According to the latest Hourly Mesoscale Analysis from the SPC, we are already seeing CAPE values in the 500 to 1500 J/kg range across the western half of the area.

The SPC has adjusted the areas of the severe weather risks for later today and tonight over North/Central Alabama. The Slight Risk now includes locations west of a line from Epes (Sumter Co.) to Gorgas (Walker Co.) to Gurley (Limestone Co.). A Marginal Risk now includes locations extending out to a line stretching from Sweet Water (Marengo Co.) to Jemison (Chilton Co.) to Forney (Cherokee Co.).

The main threats continue to be from damaging thunderstorm wind gusts up to 60 MPH and hail up to quarter-size in diameter. The larger hail threat will come mostly from any cells that could develop out ahead of the main squall line, while the damaging wind threat will mostly come from the cell embedded in the squall line.

While we have not mentioned a threat of tornadoes, the threat level is very, very low, but not zero. We’ll have to watch for any brief spin-ups if we get any bowing line segments in the squall line.

The main window for stronger to severe storms continue to be from 6:00 pm till 11:00 pm, but we could see some thunderstorms develop before that if the cap over the area breaks down

At this point, there is not enough atmospheric moisture for any stronger to severe thunderstorms to build. Dewpoints at the surface are still in the lower to mid-50s, a good bit away from the magical 60º dewpoints needed for those stronger to severe storms. Temperatures are currently in the 70s across the area and our daytime highs will reach the upper 70s to the lower 80s. We’ll have to watch carefully as dewpoints will be approaching and maybe surpassing that 60º mark in locations that have been defined in the Slight Risk for severe storms.

We’ll continue to keep you posted throughout the rest of the afternoon and evening hours.

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Severe Weather