SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Watch Possible

SUMMARY…Area is being monitored for thunderstorm development. A conditional risk of hail, damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado will exist with any sustained cells.

DISCUSSION…At 2030Z, convection is gradually deepening from central/eastern MS into western AL. Widespread shallow convection was noted across this area earlier in the day, with a temperature inversion rooted around 700 mb limiting the depth of convective elements. However, this inversion should slowly erode over time, eventually allowing for at least isolated thunderstorm development between 4 PM – 6 PM CDT, as the region is glanced by a well defined midlevel shortwave passing to the north. If any deep convection can become sustained, effective shear of 40-50 kts, long hodographs, and steep midlevel lapse rates above the capping inversion will support the potential for rotating updrafts, along with a corresponding threat of large hail, locally damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado. Considerable uncertainty remains as to the coverage and intensity of prefrontal thunderstorm development across this region, but given the conditional threat of a supercell or two, watch issuance is possible within the next couple of hours. Later this evening, additional thunderstorm development will be possible as the cold front moves in, with some continued potential for hail and wind.

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