SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Watch Possible

SUMMARY…Convection will continue to gradually develop across the discussion area over the next several hours, posing a threat for hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado. A WW issuance may eventually be needed pending convective trends.

DISCUSSION…Although most of the pre-frontal warm sector has been capped through the afternoon, recent radar/satellite indicates localized breaches of the inversion associated with gradually deepening convection near/north of Jackson, TN and also along the cold front near Bradley/Drew counties in Arkansas. These trends should continue through the remainder of the afternoon in response to convergence along the front, continued surface warming/destabilization, and the glancing influence of a shortwave trough centered over Missouri. Strong deep shear (around 50 kts) and weak surface-based instability (around 1000-1250 J/kg) will support a gradually increasing risk of damaging wind gusts and hail with convection that can deepen and mature along and ahead of the front. Veered low-level flow will limit the overall tornado risk, although an isolated tornado cannot be completely ruled out – especially where localized backing enhances SRH.

Tags: MesoScaleDiscussion

Category: ALL POSTS, MescoScale Discussions