Some Strong Weekend Storms

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SUMMER-LIKE: Temperatures will rise into the upper 80s today over much of Alabama, and some places over West Alabama could very well touch 90. This, combined with dewpoints around 70, should push surface based CAPE values to almost 3,000 j/kg this afternoon. It seems like a capping inversion will be in place that should prevent storms from forming easily, but if that cap breaks, some of the late day storms could really pack a punch. At this point it looks like the most organized storms later today will be north of here, over the extreme northern part of Alabama and into Tennessee, where SPC has a slight risk of severe weather in place (their standard risk).

THE WEEKEND: A surface boundary will sag slowly southward toward North Alabama, meaning we will have to deal with more thunderstorms. We could see an afternoon storm tomorrow in spots, and those storms should become a little more numerous tomorrow night. SPC has much of North Alabama in a slight severe weather risk; so once again the storms that form could produce some hail and strong winds. An isolated tornado is not out of the question. Otherwise, tomorrow will be warm and muggy with a mix of sun and clouds and a high in the mid 80s.

Sunday, most of the state is in a slight severe weather risk as the boundary continues to drop south. The day will be mostly cloudy with a good chance of showers and storms. Most communities won’t get out of the 70s on Sunday due to the clouds and showers.

NEXT WEEK: We will hang on to a pretty decent chance of a few showers or storms Monday, but drier air will begin to move into North Alabama late in the day, and the GFS continues to insist that Tuesday and Wednesday will be sunny, with lower humidity and cooler nights. We note the ECMWF is not exactly on the same page, but for now we will buy into the drier scenario. Moist air returns late in the week, with showers and storms by late Thursday and Friday.

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I will be doing a weather program this morning at Pinecrest Elementary down in Sylacauga… I will be back in the office this afternoon and the next Weather Xtreme video should be posted by 3:30 or so. Enjoy the day!

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