SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Watch Possible

| April 13, 2019 @ 5:05 pm

SUMMARY…A severe threat is expected to develop across eastern Mississippi and western to central Alabama. Marginally severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat will be the primary threats. Weather watch issuance could be necessary across the region over the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION…The latest radar imagery shows a small cluster of thunderstorms developing across west-central Alabama. This convection is located along the northeastern edge of moderate instability. The RAP is analyzing MLCAPE values across west-central Alabama in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. In addition to the instability, deep-layer shear is strong with the Birmingham WSR-88D VWP showing about 60 kt of 0-6 km shear. The VWP also shows gradually veering winds with height in the lowest 3 Km AGL with 0-3 Km storm relative helicity near 350 m2/s2. Discrete cells that develop in this environment may have an isolated tornado threat. Wind damage will also be possible with rotating storms. The threat should remain isolated this afternoon but should increase as a organized convective line approaches from the west early this evening.

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