SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Tornado Watch 59… 60…

| April 14, 2019 @ 10:08 am

SUMMARY…Widely scattered strong to severe storms will overspread the region through midday, particularly across areas south through southeast of the Atlanta metro area, accompanied by the risk for damaging wind gusts and a couple of tornadoes.

DISCUSSION…Considerable remnant stratiform precipitation is impeding/slowing boundary layer destabilization, but scattered vigorous thunderstorm development persists along a pre-frontal surface trough associated with overnight convection. This is advancing eastward across the Georgia/Alabama border vicinity and western Florida Panhandle, roughly along the western edge of a 40-50 kt southerly 850 mb jet axis. Despite the lack of stronger insolation, seasonably high boundary layer moisture content, including mid/upper 60s across the piedmont to near 70 across much of the rest of Georgia/Florida, may still contribute to gradually increasing CAPE up to around 1000 J/kg through early afternoon. And, although low-level hodographs may not be exhibiting substantial clockwise turning with height, shear beneath the low-level jet may still be sufficient for the evolution of low-level mesocyclones with an associated risk for tornadoes and/or locally strong surface gusts. Convection will gradually spread across western into central Georgia, and toward the Florida Big Bend region, through 16-17Z, with perhaps the most prominent storms now spreading north-northeast of Columbus GA into areas near/south and east of the Atlanta metro area, associated with a weak area of low pressure.

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