SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Tornado Watch 83… 84…

SUMMARY…Threat for damaging wind and a couple tornadoes will persist from central to southwest AL and southeast MS through mid evening. The most organized storms will approach the Birmingham metro area near 00Z and WW 84 can be locally extended as needed.

DISCUSSION…Line of storms along the MS/AL border continues eastward. Organized embedded structures continue to be observed including comma/bowing structure on the northern end over west central AL. This activity is moving east northeast at 40-45 kt, and will approach the Birmingham area around 00Z. This portion of the line has moved north of the greater low-level moisture, instability and low-level jet which suggests it may eventually weaken. In the meantime, strong mesoscale organization and forcing along and just south of the comma head region should help to sustain the storms another 2-3 hours. The southwestern extension of the line is moving slower at 30-35 kt. However, closer proximity to the eastward-migrating low-level jet with very moist inflow suggests these storms will remain capable of occasional organization including embedded supercells next few hours.

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