SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Thunderstorm Watch 129…
SUMMARY…An isolated severe risk in the form of locally damaging winds and/or a brief tornado will continue to shift eastward across southeast Louisiana toward coastal Mississippi. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 129 will be allowed to expire at/by 15Z. While an additional Watch to its east is not imminent/certain (40% probability), convective trends will continue to be monitored.
DISCUSSION…A nearly continuous north/south-oriented line of convection continues to progress east-northeastward across coastal south-central Louisiana, with other more discrete storms preceding it. The 12Z observed sounding from LIX/Slidell LA sampled a moist environment with a 1.83 PW and 15.4 g/kg mean mixing ratio. Although cloud cover is prevalent ahead of the linearly organized convection, inhibition should gradually erode as temperatures climb through the upper 70s toward 80 F. This should allow for a gradual intensification of updrafts/downdrafts, although currently observed modest low-level/deep-layer shear may limit the overall magnitude/certainty of the severe risk. While an additional Watch issuance is not certain or imminent, areas including southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi will continue to be monitored for an increasing damaging wind/tornado risk.
Category: ALL POSTS, MescoScale Discussions
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