SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Watch Possible

SUMMARY…A fast northeast-moving convective line will continue to pose a wind damage risk along with the potential for a brief tornado from northeast Alabama into northwest Georgia/southeast Tennessee.

DISCUSSION…A well-organized convective line continues to accelerate (40-45 kt) northeastward across northeast Alabama as of 130pm CDT. It is likely now being aided by an MCV with 50+ southwesterly winds within the lowest 1-2km AGL noted per recent Huntsville AL WSR-88D VWP data. Bowing segments aside, low-level shear vs. line orientation has been favorable for mesovortex evolution within the line. Primary short-term uncertainty is a considerable downstream weakening of overall buoyancy into northwest Georgia, and particularly with northward extent across southeast Tennessee. However, line-preceding lapse rates are relatively steep with temperatures in the upper 70s/near 80F. Furthermore, the well-organized/fast-forward motion of the line itself suggests that isolated wind damage will remain a possibility into southeast Tennessee/northwest Georgia. That said, the overall QLCS is expected to undergo a weakening trend over the next 1-2 hours (particularly on the north end of the convective line).

Tags: MesoScaleDiscussion

Category: ALL POSTS, MescoScale Discussions